D’Esposito scandal triggers “migraines” among Republicans hoping to retain House of Representatives

Monday’s sensational report accusing Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) of breach of trust and possible violations of House ethics rules is throwing his re-election bid in a key Long Island district into doubt. But New York’s 4th Congressional District isn’t the only thing at stake.

D’Esposito, a former police detective, allegedly hired his longtime fiancée’s daughter and his mistress to work in his district office, jobs funded by taxpayers, The New York Times reported Monday. The first-term lawmaker was already facing a tough re-election battle in a race that political experts see as a tie as he seeks a rematch against Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he defeated by less than 4 points in 2022.

D’Esposito’s district is one of more than a dozen that President Joe Biden won in 2020, and it is at the center of both parties’ path to a House majority, so any slip-up could not only cost him his seat, but also Republicans their already razor-thin control of the chamber.

“This could be a whole new development and give a real boost to the Democratic effort to retake the House. The path back to power goes right through New York, and any political shift in one of these so-called Biden districts held by vulnerable Republicans could throw the numbers off. And Anthony D’Esposito just got a lot more vulnerable,” said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish.

“This is a moderate suburban district, but these kinds of transgressions are frowned upon. So, yes, this action alone could change the balance of power.”

The New York Times report sent shockwaves across Washington and Long Island on Monday, just six weeks before Election Day.

Republicans are fighting to defend their 220-212 majority in the House of Representatives – a margin so painfully narrow that it’s a constant headache for GOP leaders trying to get legislation through the chamber. Seventeen of the Republican seats up for election this year were won by Biden four years ago, easily enough to offset the chamber’s current margin.

Long Island has attracted increased attention in recent years for its shift to the right, which culminated in a landslide Republican victory in 2022, including for D’Esposito.

However, Democrat Tom Suozzi was able to recapture one of those Long Island districts in a special election triggered earlier this year by the resignation of scandal-plagued former Republican Rep. George Santos. Democrats and their supporters are hoping the energy around Vice President Kamala Harris could help the candidate win more in November – an advantage the party did not have in the 2022 midterms.

That is why it is crucial for Republicans not to extend the Democrats’ lead in these 17 districts where the majority of votes are at stake.

“This is an earthquake for D’Esposito,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, who formerly represented a district on Long Island and led the Democratic campaign arm in the House for two terms. “The fact is, it’s a Democratic district that supported Biden, which means that as a Republican, you can’t afford mistakes, you can’t afford scandals, you can’t afford a loss. And this particular story sets D’Esposito back significantly.”

“In an environment like Trump’s, where scandals don’t seem to matter, it’s possible for D’Esposito to survive,” Israel added. “But he’s now spent more money than he wanted, and the (National Republican Congressional Committee) needs to step in and fix the deficiencies. This isn’t a headache, it’s a migraine.”

Republicans who spoke to ABC News argued the scandal was not quite as damaging, but acknowledged the news would not help D’Esposito or the party’s overall prospects in November.

“Sure, news like this hurts. It all depends on what lead he already has, if any,” said Tom Doherty, a strategist for the New York Republicans. He still believes that Republicans will “do well” in Nassau County, where part of D’Esposito’s district is located.

“In a close race where there’s a part that cares or worries about whether or not someone should be on the payroll, that could absolutely make a difference,” added a New York Republican strategist. “It can be damaging on the margins, and it depends on how close the race is to see whether it matters or not.”

D’Esposito, for his part, has sharply criticized the New York Times for its report – without directly denying the allegations – while allies have rallied behind him.

“The latest political tabloid garbage being peddled by the New York Times is nothing more than a slimy, partisan ‘smear piece’ designed to distract Long Islanders from the Democrats’ poor record on border security, the economy and foreign policy. My personal life has never interfered with my ability to deliver results for New York’s 4th District, and I have maintained the highest ethical standards of personal conduct,” D’Esposito said Monday.

“It’s a partisan slur that would surprise no one, and it’s a close election cycle in a hotly contested district, but he’s a very strong advocate for his district. I’ve been there many times. I know the people in his district, and they’re big advocates for him and he’s big advocates for them,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) added Tuesday.

And other Republicans argued that scandals simply have less impact in an era dominated by seemingly historic controversies at the presidential level.

“I don’t think it’s going to make much difference at the ballot box. Voters understand that real life can be treacherous,” said New York GOP strategist William O’Reilly, adding that scandals like this one would “definitely” have less impact in the Trump era.

Some Democrats also expressed hesitation, arguing that the story could do significant damage but was taking place on terrain that increasingly benefits Republicans like D’Esposito.

“The question is, will that be the deciding factor? The answer is no. Long Island is leaning much more Democratic, much more Trump-leaning. Could that be something that helps Laura Gillen win or decides the race? Yes, it could,” said Hank Sheinkopf, the New York Democratic strategist, adding that the crime concern could dovetail with D’Esposito’s past as a detective.

Still, voters in D’Esposito’s district backed Biden by double-digit margins in 2020, and activists expected rumors of the scandal to spread like wildfire in the district.

“You have to be able to amplify the message, especially to undecided voters. There is a significant cohort of those voters in NY-04. Their advantage is that they don’t really have to spend money on it. The earned media exposure will do that for them. When I woke up this morning, my inbox was full of emails from Democrats and Republicans ranting about the news,” Israel said. “It will become its own narrative.”

“This revelation certainly does not help Republicans maintain control of the House,” he added. “It is an obstacle in that path.”