Could be easy, could be a little messy – San Diego Union-Tribune

Good morning from Los Angeles,

The potential for weirdness was heightened yesterday.

The Padres’ loss to the Dodgers was the latest in a series of events that kept things up in the air in the National League wild-card race.

A 4-3 loss to the Ohtani-backed Dodgers took the Padres from control of their own destiny to life support in the National League West race.

There remain two scenarios in which the Padres win the division, and neither is particularly likely. In either case, the Padres have to win tonight’s series finale here.

The Padres can still win the West if they win tonight and:

They beat the Diamondbacks while the Dodgers lost at least two of three games against the Rockies in Colorado.

-or-

They win two of three games in Arizona while the Dodgers are defeated by the Rockies.

Yes.

So let’s focus on what was most likely all along.

The Padres are still in a great position to clinch the NL’s top wild-card spot and the home series that comes with it.

Another win means the Diamondbacks can’t overtake the Padres. Two more wins (or a Mets win and a loss, or two Mets losses) means the Mets can’t overtake them.

But if these things don’t happen, things will be difficult.

The Mets did not play yesterday and will not play today as the two remaining games of their series against the Braves in Atlanta were postponed until Monday due to the ongoing impacts of Hurricane Helene.

Monday’s doubleheader will only be played if it has playoff implications.

What exactly the impact on the playoffs means is not certain.

An inquiry to MLB about whether the games would be played if the three wild card teams were determined but the seeding could still be affected by the outcome of the Braves and Mets’ final two games yielded the following response:

“The doubleheader game is scheduled for Monday and the commissioner’s office will determine whether there are any circumstances under which we would not play as scheduled.”

There’s a good chance the Padres and/or Diamondbacks are in limbo after their series. One or both could wait until late Monday afternoon to find out where they will play on Tuesday and/or who their opponent will be. (The Diamondbacks could wait to see if they’re even in the playoffs.)

I won’t go into detail about the possible scenarios because I would probably end up leaving out something really obvious.

Suffice it to say, it’s still possible the Padres are a No. 6 seed and play their wild-card series in Milwaukee, or a No. 5 seed and play in Arizona or New York next Tuesday.

Most likely, the Padres will head home Sunday night to wait out the Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves.

The best-case scenario for the Padres is that they won this home series and watch the Mets and Braves use up their pitching staffs on Monday.

Do it right

I wrote about how the Padres’ loss played out in my game story (here) and how it had nothing to do with them clinching a playoff spot on Tuesday.

I received a number of emails from readers and heard a few complaints from the media about how the Padres drank heavily and partied until dawn.

They didn’t do that. At least there was no evidence of it.

It was legitimate to ask questions about their celebration plans. (That’s why I did it.)

But what if they hadn’t celebrated their achievement? What would they do now that division is all but out of reach? The time to celebrate is over.

If you missed Joe Musgrove’s explanation of why the Padres celebrated, you can read what I wrote about it here. Not included in this story was Musgrove’s explanation that the celebrations serve a purpose beyond a retrospective.

“Part of it is bonding,” he said. “That’s where the guys develop that fire and that intensity to keep going and do it again. Every celebration just keeps getting better and better.”

Disneyland has nothing to do with a victory celebration. For the participants it is the happiest place in the world at this moment. Some describe it as shortly after the birth of a child or a wedding anniversary.

In baseball there is a lot of failure and a lot of losing. So a win brings them together, and celebrating a playoff spot or a playoff series fosters closeness among the participants because they’ve all earned the right to have fun together.

Who is it?

Dylan Cease’s final start of the regular season didn’t help resolve one of the Padres’ big questions:

What does their rotation look like for a wild card series?

You have four candidates for a maximum of three starts.

Cease, who allowed three runs while battling through five innings last night, has to be one of those starters. This also applies to Joe Musgrove. This also applies to Michael King (assuming he doesn’t have to pitch in Sunday’s season finale).

But are you really leaving Yu Darvish out? And in what order do they pitch?

It’s an enviable problem. But there is still an important decision to be made.

Tell me, what would you do?

Not everything is good

Mostly excellent pitching has masked some of the Padres’ offensive woes of late, as their team posted an MLB-best 1.43 ERA and the Padres won nine of their 11 games last night.

But last night’s four-hit burst marked the fifth time in the last 12 games that the Padres had six hits or fewer. They are batting .255, have a .309 on-base percentage and are scoring 4.1 runs per game through 12 games.

The Padres have had six or fewer hits in just five of their last 34 games, a stretch in which they batted .272/.343 and scored 5.3 runs per game.

The Padres had a .277 batting average with runners in scoring position before that 12-game stretch. They hit .227 in the 12 games.

Some individual issues don’t seem like good trends considering what lies ahead for the Padres.

• Luis Arraez has two hits in his last 24 at-bats.
• Manny Machado was 1-for-11 against the White Sox and is 1-for-6 with two walks against the Dodgers. That’s a total of 2 of 17 in the last five games. He has struck out at least once in 10 consecutive games.
• Donovan Solano has four hits in his last 30 at-bats.
• Catchers Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz are a combined 7-of-49 (.143) since September 4th.

I have to know when to hold her

Wandy Peralta pitched yesterday for the first time since 9/11.

I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter why the Padres had essentially limited their bullpen roster to five relievers. The biggest factor is that they have played a lot of close games.

And while yesterday was another one – the seventh time in the last nine games that they were up or down by two or fewer runs – Mike Shildt couldn’t afford to use one of his top three high-leverage relievers in a game, in which the Padres dragged.

Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez had all pitched in six of the last 10 days. And with four days of potentially big games coming up, Shildt had to rely on someone else last night.

With the Padres trailing 4-3, Peralta replaced Bryan Hoeing with one out and a runner on first base in the eighth inning and got Kiké Hernández to hit a double play.

Tidbits

• Fernando Tatis Jr.’s game-winning home run in the fifth inning was projected to be 448 feet, the longest home run hit by a Padres player this season. Tatis has five of the Padres’ seven longest home runs this season.
• Tatis also doubled last night and has 12 extra-base hits (seven home runs, five doubles) in his last 54 at-bats.
• Jake Cronenworth was 0-2 with two walks last night. In his last 36 starts, Cronenworth batted .228 with an OBP of .359. It’s the third-largest discrepancy between the two numbers in the Major Leagues over that period (since August 14), behind the Yankees duo of Aaron Judge (.300/.438) and Juan Soto (.227/.366).
• Brandon Lockridge has likely cemented his spot on the postseason roster as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He stole second base in two attempts last night.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.