College Football 25 Simulation: Can Utah State slow Ashton Jeanty and Boise State?

Note: As EA Sports brings college football back to the world of video games with “College Football 25,” Deseret News is simulating every Utah State University game against an FBS opponent this season.

Utah State faces a daunting task as the Mountain West Conference begins.

The Aggies are on a three-game losing streak entering conference play.

Utah State will also face the league’s top-ranked team to open MWC play as the Aggies take on Boise State on Saturday.

Can the Aggies keep up with the Broncos?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game in the EA Sports College Football 25 video game and it ended about as you would expect.

How the simulation was set up

There were a few ground rules: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game without user intervention.

CPU ratings have also been adjusted slightly from standard to make pass defense more realistic. I felt that passers in previous simulations were attempting an unrealistic number of attempts, so I adjusted passing accuracy from 50 to 35 and then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 75. This helped create more realistic numbers.

There were also injuries and changes to the depth chart, but they didn’t really have much of an impact in this simulation compared to previous simulations – Utah State was coming off a break and had some time to recover.

I also customized the uniform combinations we will see in the game. Utah State goes all white, wearing its white road jerseys with white helmet and pants, while Boise State dons its retro orange jerseys, with an orange helmet paired with a blue script helmet and matching blue pants.

How accurate was the simulation of Utah State’s last game?

The actual score: Temple 45, Utah State 29

College Football 25 Simulation Final Score: Utah State 29, Temple 10

My analysis: At the start of the match, it looked like this simulation was completely plausible – Temple was winless and had one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the country. The simulation accurately predicted Utah State’s point total while also projecting more than 400 yards of total offense for the Aggies (which it did).

In the actual game, however, the Aggies fell short in the second half after taking a 21-17 lead at halftime. Utah State gave up 451 yards and 45 points to a Templar offense that otherwise looked listless.

How did the simulation go between Utah State and Boise State?

Final result: Boise State 24, Utah State 6

Key sequence: Late in the second quarter, with Utah State down 17-0, the Aggies had a promising, fast drive and were held scoreless.

Spencer Petras completed three passes in a row to quickly get the Aggies offside after taking over the ball with just over a minute left before halftime – a 37-yard pass to Kyrese White brought the ball to the Boise State 1.

However, the Broncos’ defense had a huge goal-line stand: Petras was stopped on a first-and-goal run for no gain, then Utah State leaned on leadback Rahsul Faison to try to score. However, Faison was stopped on two consecutive plays without a gain before a 5-yard loss on fourth-and-goal, giving Boise State a 17-0 lead at halftime.

How the simulation went: In a simulation that featured a stronger defense than perhaps expected, the Broncos got off to a fast start.

After an early three-and-out, Boise State scored on three straight possessions to build a 17-0 lead.

The Broncos used a heavy dose of star running back Ashton Jeanty on their first scoring drive, which ended with a 1-yard touchdown catch by Austin Bolt.

Then, after Utah State had a three-and-out on its second possession, Boise State capitalized on a 27-yard punt return that helped set up a 47-yard field goal by Jonah Dalmas with 1:57 left End in the first quarter.

After another three-and-out by Utah State – its third in a row to start the game – Boise State again methodically moved the ball downfield, including a key third-down pickup that moved the ball to the Utah State 30.

That set up a 21-yard touchdown pass from Maddux Madsen to Matt Lauter with 7:45 left until halftime.

The Aggies’ first promising drive of the game ended with no points, as Petras racked up two consecutive sacks before Elliott Nimrod missed a 50-yard field goal attempt.

Then Utah State missed its next drive when Boise State had the goal line tied.

That left the Aggies in little danger of an upset, as both teams used ball control in the second half to quickly advance the final 30 minutes.

Jeanty delivered the final blow late in the third quarter as Boise State once again leaned on its star, scoring a 26-yard touchdown run on the final play of the quarter to make it 24-0.

Utah State finally countered with a quick 75-yard touchdown pass to White on the first play of the fourth quarter.

Aside from that, though, both teams traded time-consuming drives — and two interceptions — before Boise State simply ran out the clock with a final drive that ended inside the USU 5.

Star player: Jeanty was a key factor, running for 173 yards and scoring in the third quarter to pace Boise State’s offense.

Madsen, the American Fork High product, threw for 147 yards and two touchdowns and one interception, while his favorite target was Latrell Caples, who had five catches for 88 yards.

For Utah State, Faison finished with 70 rushing yards, but that only equated to an average of 2.9 per carry.

White finished the game with six catches for 140 yards and the long touchdown, accounting for more than half of Petras’ 218 passing yards.

Key stats: The Broncos finished the game with just 329 total yards of offense, although they converted 7 of 14 third-down attempts to make the most of those yards.

Utah State managed 258 yards of total offense, although the Aggies struggled on third down, converting just 4 of 13.

Boise State also had five sacks, compared to Utah State’s two.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: If there’s something that seems a little unrealistic about this simulation, it’s that I expected Boise State to score more points: In real life, the Broncos average 47.8 points per game, and 24 points seems a little low to be, especially against a Utah State team that’s 36.3 points per game.

Otherwise, however, things went as expected. Jeanty controlled the flow of the game and Boise State was never really in danger of losing to a Utah State University team desperate for a win.