The Philadelphia Phillies won their first NL East division title since 2011 last night and have two more games at home against the Chicago Cubs before they close out the regular season this weekend against the Nationals. In my opinion, it was a late night in Philly last night and we may see a few starters out of the lineup before first pitch tonight. As for pitching, Tanner Banks will serve as the opener for the Phillies before they turn the task over to a bulk reliever, likely Kolby Allard or Taijuan Walker.
I don’t have a lot of confidence in either Allard or Walker right now for very different reasons. Allard has only appeared in 6 games for the Phillies this season and has a 4.30 ERA, while Walker has a 6.91 ERA in 82.0 innings this year. Even since being moved to the bullpen, Walker has shown little improvement, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 home runs in 3.1 innings of relief just 5 days ago. The Cubs should have a significant pitching advantage tonight when left-hander Justin Steele steps on the rubber. Steele has a 3.03 ERA in 23 starts and is in the 83rd percentile or better in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. Steele has been particularly strong since early August, boasting a 1.84 ERA in his last 6 starts. With that in mind, I’m betting on the Cubs to even the series at Citizens Bank Park.
Predictions for Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Cubs ML (-130) available at time of publication. Playable at this number.
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