It was a great feeling to have a full NFL football schedule back in our lives on Sunday. Of course, not everything went as we had hoped, but that’s the reality of fantasy football.
Now that we finally have game data to work with, I’m refocusing on weekly regression candidates based on which players are running too hot and too cold for their underlying usage. As always, I’ll be relying heavily on our Usage report data and I highly recommend checking out our entire suite of tools to help you take your game to the next level.
Before I get into the players I want to highlight as positive and negative regression candidates, there is a macro regression trend I want to discuss first. The NFL offenses were particularly run-heavy in Week 1which led to disappointing performances from a number of highly drafted pass catchers.
In the last two seasons The NFL offenses averaged 218 passing yards and 1.4 passing TDs per game. In Week 1, it was 188 passing yards and 1.1 passing TDs. Assuming teams return to those recent averages (which are already the lowest since 2009), we’re looking at an additional 960 passing yards and 10 passing TDs in an average week with all 32 teams playing. What I’m saying is that there will be better days for passing attacks around the league. This is especially important at the TE position, where we’ve seen virtually all of the highest drafted options fail.
As we look more closely at these macro trends, my main takeaway is that one should not overstate the importance of RB production early in the season. Yes, it’s great that an RB is getting a lot of touches now, but I don’t want to pay for that volume now by trading a top WR cheap to buy a volume-dependent RB expensive.
Positive regression
Trey McBrideArizona Cardinals
I designed Trey McBride in three of my four redraft leagues this year, so I’m definitely biased, but his Week 1 effort was very encouraging despite the lack of fantasy points. He ran a lot of routes and attracted 9 targets, which was the most on the team. We’ve seen enough in his first two seasons to say that if he continues to put up similar volume, he’s a strong candidate to be this season’s TE1.
The biggest question mark in McBride’s profile is how many opportunities he will get to score TDs. The Cardinals will likely focus on James Conner around the goal line, so I think it’s unlikely that McBride will score many touchdowns this year. However, he should easily get into the 6-8 touchdown range if he stays healthy and maintains a similar level of usage throughout the season.
Third year TEs are often successful, so I expect we haven’t seen the full potential of him as a primary weapon in Arizona’s offense. I already have McBride on most of my rosters, but if not, he would be one of my top transfer targets after Week 1.
Keenan AllenChicago Bears
It was definitely a disappointing debut for Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense in Week 1, but it’s way too early to panic about the rookie QB. After throwing for just 93 yards in his opening game, Williams could be a positive regression candidate himself, but I’m more interested in his pass-catching. One of the more notable developments for me was the fact that Keenan Allen led the team in targets, got the only end zone target, and had the highest aDOT of the top three receivers.
This level of effort is hugely encouraging for Allen considering the Bears had one of the more difficult to gauge WR rooms when it came to target share. I don’t expect Allen to lead the team in targets every week, but seeing that Williams often looked his way is a great sign of his ability to deliver where he was drafted. In fact, Keenan’s role in Week 1 was so strong that he was considered the WR12 in PFF’s Expected Points model. He may not have delivered that right out of the gate, but that makes me a lot more confident that we’ll see top-notch fantasy production from him this season.
The other important note from Week 1 was that Beginner WR Rome Odunze suffered a medial ligament strain and is expected to play week to week. While I hate to see a talented young player get hurt early in the season, it gives Keenan a bigger buffer against losing routes and targets to the rookie. Keep in mind that Keenan hasn’t practiced all week due to a heel injury. While a veteran could get by without practice, that doesn’t bode well for his availability on Sunday. However, missed practice time is more damaging to a rookie over the course of the season than it is to a veteran. Now we just need Caleb Williams to show why he is such a highly valued prospect, and Chicago’s WR room should take off.
Negative regression
Jayden ReedGreen Bay Packers
The second-year WR for Green Bay was electrifying in Week 1, Scored the most fantasy points of all WRs thanks to two long scoring playsEven in a normal scenario, Jayden Reed would be a candidate for negative regression, as an average of 34 yards per touch and 2 TDs per game is simply not sustainable.
Unfortunately, this is not a normal scenario, because Packers quarterback Jordan Love suffered a knee injury at the season opener. Thankfully, he was able to avoid the worst-case scenario and the Packers don’t plan on placing him on the injured list, which makes a case for him returning to the lineup sooner rather than later. But even if Love returns, he almost certainly won’t be 100% healthy, which could limit the offense or cause them to have to rely more on the running attack. Any of those scenarios would be bad for Reed and the Packers’ other pass catchers.
I actually think Reed is best positioned among the Packers WRs to maintain viable fantasy production while Love is out or limited because Reed can make an impact with targeted touches and in the run game. Still, it’s important to temper expectations for his performance over the next 3-6 weeks while we wait for Love to return to full strength. Reed was selected late enough in the draft that you should have viable alternatives to replace him until we see what this Green Bay offense looks like.
Alec PierceIndianapolis Colts
It should come as no surprise that the player who averaged 41.7 yards per reception in Week 1 is on the negative regression list. Alec Pierce wasn’t viewed as a particularly relevant fantasy asset and likely went undrafted in most leagues. Despite his breakout performance in Week 1, he’s not a waiver priority for me, with several factors working against him.
First, he was only the third most used player on the team and won’t be as efficient most weeks. As the third option in a low-passing offense, he won’t score many fantasy points in most games.
Secondly, I am not convinced that he will remain the third option for long. If Josh Downs returns from injury I’m pretty confident he’ll run ahead of Pierce, which will only further limit his routes and targets. Pierce has been pretty inefficient so far in his career, averaging just 1.24 and 0.85 yards per route run in his first two seasons, which strongly suggests he’s not a difference-maker on an NFL field. I like both Downs and Rookie Adonai Mitchell more than players– and I believe the same is true for the Colts – so I have a hard time imagining Pierce carving out a big enough role for himself to ever be a player you want on the bench, let alone in the starting lineup.
According to the PFF Expected Points modelPierce had just 5.2 expected PPR points in the half, which ranked 67th among WRs. If that’s the role he has in a game where the Colts were trailing and had no downs, I don’t even want to imagine where it goes from here. I won’t even see him on waivers this week, but at least he’ll always be able to say he’s on the Receiving end of one of the best throws of the seasonN.
