Buccaneers-Falcons betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

• QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — over 22.5 degrees: The former No. 1 overall pick struggled at home against the Eagles last week en route to his best finish of the season so far. Mayfield posted an 85.1 PFF passing grade, the third-best mark of Week 4 and the second-best of his time with the Buccaneers.

• 2024 Record: 11-10 (52.4%) – 0.86 units won.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

A battle at the top of the NFC South kicks off Week 5 on Thursday night, with the division-leading Buccaneers traveling to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.

The Kirk Cousins Era in Atlanta wasn’t without its problems early in the year, but a big, last-second division win over the Saints last week breathed life into this team. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo – the second-highest kicker in the NFL – has become the equalizer for this team, with his outstanding accuracy making these games closer than they would otherwise be.

Still, this doesn’t represent much of an advantage for bettors. The Falcons have just a 1-3 record against the team this season, with all three losses coming in Atlanta – two of which were against them as modest favorites.

Although he has talented weapons, especially at running back Bijan RobinsonAtlanta was inefficient on offense, ranking in the bottom five of the league in various metrics, including late-down conversion rate (31.9%), touchdown drive percentage (13.2%) and goals scored Offensive points (30).

Part of these problems fall on the quarterback position, where Kirk Cousins earned just a 64.7 PFF passing grade (19th among 33 qualified passers). Compared to seven turnover plays, he has only made two great throws – making him the second-most hitter in the NFL. That offense will need him to make strides this week against Tampa, as the Bucs hold the NFL’s second-highest team coverage grade (81.4) through the first month of the season.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has demonstrated the ability to produce solid performances on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by the team’s upset victory last week, defeating the Eagles by several points as home underdogs.

Just like their quarterback, Baker MayfieldThe Buccaneers enjoy underdog status and currently hold a 2-0 record against the spread when conceding points, including an outright win on the road at Detroit in Week 2.

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 22.5 completions (-109) – 4.8% PFF Greenline Edge

The former No. 1 overall pick struggled at home against the Eagles last week en route to his best finish of the season so far. Mayfield posted an 85.1 PFF passing grade, the third-highest grade of Week 4 and the second-best of his time with the Buccaneers.

Consistency was a bit of an issue for Mayfield early in the year, as there were situations where he held onto the ball for too long. That was far from the case last week as he played with time and rhythm from the pocket to get the ball out quickly. Mayfield recorded the league’s fastest time-to-throw average (2.17 seconds) last week after being among the 14 longest times in Week 3.

Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen puts Mayfield on measured, high-percentage offenses early to mitigate coverage, then defuses shooting plays to avoid offensive errors. This allowed Mayfield to beat that betting line in three out of four games this season.

Atlanta likes to rely on its experienced safeties to keep the offense guessing. It often starts with open looks before the snap and rotates to close down the middle of the field. Her undercover coverage rate of 40.8% ranks third in the NFL. If Coen and Mayfield can anticipate this and get the ball out quickly, it could go a long way in this game.