Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
NFL The odds for week three were not much better for the general public than those for week two. In other words, they were not cheap at all.
The bookies were ahead once again, thanks in large part to some surprising upsets – hello Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams and even the Carolina Panthers.
“These are the kind of weekends when the lights are on in the summer,” said Chase Michaelson, risk supervisor at SuperBook.
Bookmakers at sportsbooks across the country are recaping the weekend’s NFL and college football betting.
Table with early eye-catcher set
The Giants were 0-2 up (SU) and behind (ATS) when they traveled to Cleveland in Week 3. And the G-Men trailed the Browns by 6.5 points.
But quarterback Daniel Jones threw two touchdown passes and the Giants won 21-15 despite scoring no points in the second half.
The Broncos were also 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) after two weeks. Denver was a 6-point underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. But rookie QB Bo Nix and the Broncos easily pulled off a 26-7 victory.
“The Giants and Broncos were huge,” said BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini, noting that Sunday’s early window of games — including the Philadelphia Eagles’ 15-12 win at the New Orleans Saints — pretty much made the book’s day. “We got pretty much everything we needed there.”
The same goes for The SuperBook.
“We did very well. The Packers and Eagles were very important to us,” said SuperBook executive John Murray, referring to Green Bay’s 30-14 victory as a 3-point underdog against the Tennessee Titans. “And of course the moneyline parlays took a hit with the Bucs and Browns both losing.”
Zachary Lucas, sports director at TwinSpires Sportsbook, added: “The Bucs and Saints losses have wiped out many parlay bets.”
Saquon Barkley on the Eagles’ late win over the Saints in Week 3
Circa Survivor Shakedown
While it’s not your typical NFL bet, survivor contests are hugely popular, and none is more popular than Circa Survivor. The contest, hosted by Circa Sports in Las Vegas, attracted a whopping 14,266 entrants with prize money of $1,000 each, raising a total prize pool of $14.266 million.
At the beginning of the third week, only 3,874 participants remained. In the first two weeks alone, more than 10,000 participants were eliminated.
Then the Browns, Bucs and Raiders all lost on Sunday. Those three teams were the most frequently picked Nos. 2, 3 and 4 in Week 3 of Circa Survivor. Cleveland was the choice of 931 participants, Tampa of 667 and Las Vegas of 515.
These three participants alone eliminated 2,113 participants, more than half of the remaining field.
Regional bias
All of the above doesn’t mean that recreational bettors have been completely slammed. Tom Gable is head of sports betting at The Borgata, a BetMGM property in Atlantic City. That means there’s a huge regional bias of Eagles fans and Giants fans.
That wasn’t a good combination on Sunday. As mentioned above, Philly, as a 3-point underdog, pulled out a narrow 15-12 win in New Orleans, and New York, as a 6.5-point underdog, pulled out a 21-15 win in Cleveland.
“As good as last week was, this week is back to reality,” said Gable. “There was a lot of money at stake with the Eagles and the Giants weren’t a good result for us either, they won straight away.”
At Borgata, there were plenty of takers for the New York moneyline, which was in the +240 range. For example, a $100 bet returned $240 (total payout $340).
Review Giants vs. Browns: Jonathan Vilma and Kenny Albert on the Giants’ offensive success
On campus
One of the final games to end on Saturday night proved to be one of the most decisive in the fourth week of college football: Baylor versus Colorado. Trailing 31-24, Colorado got a surprising answer on the final play of regulation: Shedeur Sanders completed a 43-yard pass to LaJohntay Webster.
That touchdown tied the game at 31-31 and forced overtime, which the Buffaloes opened with a touchdown to take a 38-31 lead. South Point sports betting director Chris Andrews had seen enough by that point.
“Oh my God. I couldn’t believe they scored the tying touchdown. And when they scored in overtime, I shut down. I knew we were going to lose and I couldn’t take that,” Andrews said.
It’s probably better that Andrews didn’t see exactly how the bookie lost and the bettors won. Baylor had first-and-goal at the 2-yard line, ready to tie and force double overtime. Running back Dominic Richardson got the call.
But inches before Richardson reached the goal line, Colorado’s standout two-way player Travis Hunter placed his helmet right on the ball and threw it out. The fumble rolled through the end zone and resulted in a game-ending touchback.
And Colorado was successful as a favorite with a 2.5 point lead.
This concluded a good day for the South Point bettors and a long day for Andrews and his team.
“We didn’t make any money on Saturday,” he said.
Fans storm the field after Colorado’s Travis Hunter forces a Baylor fumble through the end zone, sealing a 38-31 overtime victory
The result between Miami-Ohio and Notre Dame was also interesting, but could not keep up with the tension between Baylor and Colorado.
The Fighting Irish finished the game as 27.5-point favorites. With a 28-3 lead, Notre Dame fought its way to the RedHawks’ 9-yard line, running out the clock. A field goal would have secured the Irish victory.
So a big kudos to everyone who took Miami-Ohio +27.5 and made it.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a renowned journalist covering national sports betting. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 100-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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