College football started off with a bang when Georgia Tech defeated Florida State in Ireland on Saturday. If you followed me early in the season, we didn’t get anything done in that game, but we did start the season with a win when we took home the under at Nevada.
Since the season really gets going this weekend, I won’t be betting on a ton of games (especially the total) right at the start of the season. There are a few reasons for this.
First, the two-minute warning. I have a good idea how much that should affect the totals, but until I see how the college game adapts to the rule, it’s hard to say for sure.
The second part is helmet communication. Will this cause the pace to slow down across the sport? What effect does it have on efficiency if a coach can talk to a quarterback until there are 15 seconds left on the game clock? These two changes account for my cautious approach earlier in the year.
Right now I’m going with five games, but I expect to add at least two games throughout the week. Market entry and price point are critical to success in sports betting, and if you think you can get a better price by waiting a day or two, patience is key.
And as always, compare prices to find the best deal. If you have any questions, feel free to leave us a comment or contact us via X/Twitter (@amock419) and I will be happy to help you.
Before we dive into this week’s best bets, let’s take a look at our record so far:
Overall rating: 171-161-11, -2.24 units, -0.6% ROI
Last season: 50-60-2, -16.6 units, -13.7% ROI
Last week: 1-0, 1.00 units
Season 2024: 1-0, 1.00 units, 90.9% ROI
Get The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide to read expert reviews and everything you need to know to win your fantasy football league.
Get The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide to read expert reviews.
Buy
Best Bets for College Football Week 1
All games involve taking a unit to win on favorites and a unit to risk on underdogs. I also share a “worst betting line” which is the last number I would bet on before the game no longer has enough value to place a bet on.
Minnesota Moneyline (+110) vs. North Carolina
North Carolina took some money over the weekend and is now a slim favorite, and I don’t agree with this move. The Tar Heels have had great quarterback careers the last couple years with Sam Howell and Drake Maye, but that’s not the case this year. Unless Mack Brown finds another NFL draft pick in Max Johnson or Conner Harrell, I think there will be a decent step back this season. Now, I’m not a huge fan of Minnesota’s offense, but I think the Golden Gophers have added to the quarterback position earlier this season. Does Minnesota have what it takes to beat a more talented North Carolina squad? I think so.
Worst betting odds: -105
UNLV in Houston over 54.5 (-110)
Willie Fritz comes to Houston after a successful stint at Tulane, and that means we have to look at the style of play here. Fritz will likely rely more on running, but in terms of tempo, Houston and Tulane had similar numbers last season. UNLV, on the other hand, plays really fast. Last year, they were 28th in tempo and 21st in drives per game according to TruMedia. Houston will play slower, but I think you could see an improvement in Houston’s efficiency with Fritz at the helm. This game has a chance to reach the 60s if everything goes according to plan.
Worst betting line: Over 56.5 (-110)
Troy -8 (-110) against Nevada
That line was -12 before Nevada’s game against SMU on Saturday and has been hovering around 13 or 13.5 last week. Sure, Nevada exceeded expectations in that game and I think they’ve improved significantly from last year, but that’s a significant adjustment based on a single game. My numbers are in the double digits and I’m happy to try my luck here by selling Nevada high.
Worst betting odds: Troy -9.5 (-110)
South Alabama -5.5 (-110) vs. North Texas
My number here is 7.5. Considering North Texas lost one of its top defensive players to a season-ending knee injury in fall camp, we have a bet on the Jaguars. Sure, South Alabama is training up new head coaches, so maybe we’ll see something unexpected, because that’s what college football is like in 2024 when it comes to offseason turnover. But South Alabama did promote its offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, and that gives me a little sense of continuity.
Worst betting odds: South Alabama -6.5 (-110)
Florida +3 (-115) vs. Miami
This could be the most important game of the weekend, with all due respect to Georgia-Clemson (who have a two-touchdown lead). Both coaches are in desperate need of a good season and neither team wants to start with a loss to their in-state rival. My odds for the game actually make Florida the slim favorite and I’m probably a little low on Miami, but I’m not going for a field goal here. I wouldn’t expect this game to end at those odds as we’ve already seen some bookies score 3 points and are at 2.5.
Worst betting odds: Florida +3 (-115) or Moneyline +105
(Photo by Graham Mertz: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
