Best bets for Bills-Ravens and “Sunday Night Football”

Monday Night Football I saw our best bets go for 2/4 last week with the burns coming from wide receivers: a dud one night from Gabe Davis and my big interest in Curtis Samuel. The Buffalo Bills were able to put another game away early on, but the offense didn’t stop trying until late in the third quarter.

Bills Mafia should expect a much closer game against the Baltimore Ravens tonight, with Baltimore’s back against the wall and Buffalo facing another short road game in the week. Let’s look at five ways to capitalize on another Bills primetime matchup. All numbers and suggestions come via the odds at FanDuel.

Remember, as always, no spread or over/under picks are included.

James Cook over 54.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Bills have installed an offense that is willing to balance and settle for whatever the defense gives them. Week 4 should be no different. The Ravens have suffered two lead blows this season, and a big reason for that is because they rank in the bottom ten in both pressure rate and blitz rate.

Baltimore has a top-five EPA rushing defense, but that will be significantly inflated by facing a Las Vegas Raiders team that has easily the worst rushing offense in the league. Additionally, the Ravens had the fewest offensive attempts in the league. As long as the game script remains neutral, running back James Cook should see enough carries to clear that line.

Mark Andrews over 29.5 receiving yards (-110)

I like to support good players at their lowest points during downturns, and tight end Mark Andrews did just that in terms of receiving last week. A zero-catch game against the Dallas Cowboys and the emergence of Isaiah Likely in Week 1 pushed that number too low.

Andrews has run 42 of 56 routes from the slot and Buffalo ranks just 11th in EPA allowed from the slot – their worst ranking against all WR alignments. The Bills have a bottom-five run defense that also gets inflated by big leads early in games. So I expect Andrews to be brought in to keep the Bills off balance. This number could be reached in just two catches.

Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+150)

It’s more than three weeks until Allen injures his left hand during a touchdown jump over Arizona Cardinals safety Buddha Baker. This was a “gotta have it” situation, and I expect several “gotta have it” moments in this game as Allen lets his adrenaline flow and tries to get it on himself. It’s hard to hit this number when the odds are positive, so grab it while it lasts.

Lamar Jackson under 58.5 rushing yards (-110)

Quarterback Kyler Murray was able to break through that Bills defense for 57 yards in Week 1. With all due respect to Lamar Jackson, this was more out of concern for the Cardinals’ passing attack. Buffalo knows what Jackson can do, and I imagine the Bills scouting him throughout the game and using running back Derrick Henry to slowly move the Ravens up the field. Forcing Baltimore into runs designed by Lamar would be a win for Buffalo, as their linebackers pose more of a liability in the passing game.

Longshot of the Week: Mack Hollins Anytime TD Scorer (+700)

Wide receiver Mack Hollins has recorded the second-most targets for Buffalo this season, but he has the fewest number of targets on the team (6). This is a bet on volume, as it’s rare to get seven-to-one odds on someone who is on the field as often as Hollins. He already caught a touchdown in Week 1 and that number has been around +500 over the last two games, so we’re getting him at a good purchase price.

If you can, play at odds of +9471

Good luck and have fun. Share your top tips with me on Twitter @Anzalone_Cam