Best Actor Oscar Predictions: Ralph Fiennes and Colman Domingo share

Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) has long been our Oscar front-runner for Best Actor, but the ground beneath his feet keeps shaking, and now one of his rivals has risen up to hold him tight. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) is now dead at odds of 4/1 based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. But both need to keep an eye on two other competitors right below them who could emerge at any moment.

Domingo is currently supported by six of the specialist journalists from major media companies we interviewed. That’s more than all other competitors predict, but it’s well below the majority of experts. There are now four top journalists who are betting on Fiennes. But there is reason for Domingo to be concerned. Of the 13 experts who updated their predictions last week, none are currently pegging Domingo as the winner, so the momentum could be shifting.

What makes Fiennes so impressive – beyond his performance in Conclave, of course – is the fact that he has a huge Oscar bill to cash in on. Although he has appeared in 21st century Oscar films such as “The Reader”, “The Hurt Locker”, etc. For “The Grand Budapest Hotel”, he has not received an Oscar nomination since “The English Patient” (1996). And he’s only been nominated by the Academy twice before, including his run-in for “Schindler’s List” (1993).

But as mentioned above, the two men below him and Domingo are also fighting their way up the table. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) and Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) each has five experts betting on her victory. An interesting aspect of these two rivals is that Brody currently holds the record as the youngest Best Actor winner ever; he was just weeks away from his 30th birthday when he auditioned for The Pianist (2002). Chalamet, who turns 29 in December, would break that record if he wins. But since Brody already has a trophy and Chalamet is still a real looker, Oscar voters may not be in a hurry to award one of them this year.

Still, the four-way race remains too close, so we can likely expect further fluctuations in the coming weeks and months.