How can I put this? When Sonny Gray pitches at Busch Stadium this season, he has an ERA that the young version of Adam Wainwright would consider acceptable. Really good! But when Gray pitches away, oh my, he’s Kip Wells, circa 2007. Really bad!
Let’s get to the numbers.
Gray got pummeled in Cincinnati on Monday when the Reds gave him three home runs and six runs in five innings. That fit his pattern.
Gray has started ten times at home and ten times away this season.
And these home/away splits are awesome.
— EPOCH: 2.66 home, 5.43 away.
— Allowed HRs: 3 at home, 14 away.
— HRs per 9 innings: 0.4 home, 2.1 away.
— Percent of opponent’s hits: .288 at home, .518 away.
The Cardinals have a 6-4 record when Gray plays at Busch Stadium and a 4-6 record when he plays out of town. It could be worse.
Other notable articles:
* Gray has a road ERA of 5.89 since June 1.
* Gray’s ERA of 5.43 on the road ranks 80th among 88 pitchers who have made at least 10 road appearances this season.
* Gray’s home run rate of 2.1 home runs per nine innings on the road ranks 85th among 88 starters.
* The away slugging percentage against Gray (.518) ranks 83rd among 88 starters.
* And yet, Gray’s 31.7 percent strikeout rate on the road is third-best among 88 starters. He makes them swing and miss a lot, and makes them strike out and sit down. But when hitters come into contact with Gray as a visiting pitcher in their home stadium … the red flashes.
* In Gray’s home games, opponents have a hard hit rate of 36.2 percent and a barrel rate of 2.9 percent against the right-hander. In Gray’s away games, opponents have a hard hit rate of 43 percent and a barrel rate of 9.4 percent against him.
In terms of home-field advantage, Gray is one of the best starters in baseball in 2014. His 2.66 ERA ranks 14th among starters with at least 10 home appearances. His home run rate of 0.4 per nine innings is second best. And he has been criticized for his .288 home slugging percentage, which ranks third best among starters.
I know Busch Stadium is a friendlier environment for pitchers, but that doesn’t justify the harsh beating Gray has to endure on the road.
And it doesn’t make much sense. Despite the carnage on the road this season, Gray still has a better ERA on the road (3.38) than at home (3.62). I wanted to look at Gray’s last two seasons with the Twins and there was nothing unusual about his home/away splits. He had a 2.67 ERA in 30 home starts and a 3.19 ERA in 26 away starts. And the home run rate was low in both home and away games, really low – about 0.5 home runs per nine innings. The away slugging percentage against Gray in 2022-2023 was .348.
So what, if any, is the explanation for this? Well, I could blame it on the shabby-looking uniforms that MLB assigned for 2024. And anyone who has watched Gray pitch has seen him tug at his belt and pull up his pants when he leaves the mound after making the third out of an inning. He looks genuinely uncomfortable.
But seriously, I’m going to share some of the insights I gained late Tuesday afternoon while researching the wonderful world of Statcast. The numbers I’m about to present to you are shockingly bad.
1. The batters punish Gray’s four-seam fastballs and sinkers when he throws away. They’ve put 65 of those pitches in play, and when that happens, the slugging percentage is…wait for a minute…1.077.
2. Gray has hit 14 home runs on the road. Si came with the four-seam fastball and his sinker ripped six. There were a couple of doubles and a triple mixed in.
3. About the four-seam and sinker in Gray’s away gamesthe hard hit rate is 63.6 percent. And the barrel rate is… wait a minute… 50 percent. Yes, I wrote 50 percent. That’s amazing – but not in a good way for Gray and the Cardinals.
4. When the batter hits the four-seam or sinker into the air When Gray plays away, the average fly ball distance is 359 feet. That’s deep.
5. And the 12 Road Homers cited here The home runs hit on these two pitch types had an average distance of 407 feet. The average distance on all Fourteen of the away home runs hit against Gray this season have traveled 408 feet, a long way from home base.
Grace. But that fits with a problematic trend: The team’s starting pitchers have slowly melted and softened as the hot weather has arrived. Gray isn’t the only one. He’s just the one who makes the most money and has the “ace” label stuck on him. That leads to more scrutiny of his pitchers.
Thanks for reading… and please excuse my typos.
–Bernie
Bernie, who will be inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023, has been offering informed opinions and perspectives on St. Louis sports in his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Statistics used in my baseball columns come from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net and Sports Info Solutions, unless otherwise noted.
Bernie Miklasz
For the past 36 years, Bernie Miklasz has entertained, educated and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
Bernie is best known for his 26 years as lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch, but has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington DC.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats live in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood in St. Louis.
