B/R’s Guide to MLB Finals Weekend: Playoff Round, Statistical Milestones, Storylines, More | News, results, highlights, statistics and rumors

It’s just about time to say goodbye to the 2024 MLB regular season, but not before we say hello to the final weekend of the season.

There is enough at stake to put together a practical guide.

The status of the postseason round comes first. Four playoff spots and number 1 in both leagues are still up for grabs. We discuss who is where and what everyone will have to contend with on the final weekend.

Otherwise, there are various statistical milestones, a dance with baseball infamies and various injury histories that require monitoring.

What you should know about the playoff round

If anyone skipped straight to this part, the record should indicate that the season does not, in fact, end today.

However, if this were the case, the American League postseason field would look like this:

• AL Wild Card Series: Detroit Tigers (6) vs. Houston Astros (3)
• AL Wild Card Series: Kansas City Royals (5) vs. *Baltimore Orioles (4)
• AL Division Series: Tigers/Astros vs. ^Cleveland Guardians (2)
• AL Division Series: Royals/Orioles vs. ^New York Yankees (1)

And the National League field would look like this:

• NL Wild Card Series: Arizona Diamondbacks (6) vs. ^Milwaukee Brewers (3)
• NL Wild Card Series: New York Mets (5) vs. *San Diego Padres (4)
• NL Division Series: Diamondbacks/Brewers vs. ^Philadelphia Phillies (2)
• NL Division Series: Mets/Padres vs ^Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

It’s a good-looking field, but there are still two wildcard spots in both leagues that are still up for grabs.

The situation in the AL Wild Card Race:

1. Baltimore Orioles (88-71): 3 at the Minnesota Twins
2. Kansas City Royals (85-74): 3 in Atlanta
3. Detroit Tigers (85-74): 3 against Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins (82-77, 3.0 GB): 3 against Baltimore Orioles

Pour one out Seattle Mariners. They were still alive in the AL wild-card race Thursday morning, but came away with a win Royals And tiger took care of it.

Although the Orioles If they lead this race, it will be their fault for falling short in their quest for a second straight AL East title. They led the Yankees by 3.0 games on July 7, but have been 31-38 since then.

With losses in 16 of its last 26 games, Kansas City is trending in the opposite direction of the Tigers, who are 14-3 since Sept. 7. However, the Royals have a tiebreaker against Detroit.

The Gemini are on defense with a record of 9-15 in September, but they have a tiebreaker against both the Royals and Tigers if things go differently this weekend. Otherwise, the Orioles have a tiebreaker against the Royals, but not against the Tigers.

As a side note, what the Tigers and Royals are doing may be the best argument yet for the existence of the third wild card.

Both the Tigers (nine years) and the Royals (eight years) were in long playoff droughts entering this season, and neither of them exactly had a chance of getting out of the playoff season in 2024. But without the third wildcard, it’s possible that none of them would make it. That’s how close it is at the moment, let alone both.

The situation in the NL Wild Card Race:

1. Sa Diego Padres (91-68): 3 at the Arizona Diamondbacks
2. NNew York Mets (87-70): 3 at Milwaukee Brewers, 2 at Atlanta
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71): 3 vs. San Diego Padres
4. Atlanta (86-71, 1.0 GB): 3 against Kansas City Royals, 2 against New York Mets

The upcoming doubleheader between the Mets And Atlanta on Monday has a huge impact. It will decide the season series, which is 6:5 in Atlanta’s favor. This tiebreaker alone could decide who is in and who is out.

According to FanGraphs, the Mets (77.3 percent) are favored over Atlanta (64.2 percent) to ultimately make the playoffs.

This alone illustrates the reversal of fortune that both clubs have experienced. For example, on May 23, Atlanta was a 99.0 percent favorite to make the playoffs. On the same day, the Mets were 14.4 percent underdogs.

The Mets and Atlanta face each other in a tiebreaker Diamondbacksalthough only New York has one Padres. The duel between Arizona and San Diego is still to be determined, as the season series ends in a 5-5 tie before the final showdown in Phoenix.

The D-Backs are another team that is struggling more than it should be. As of August 27, they are 13-15 with a team ERA of 5.64 in their last 18 games.

No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the World Series

As a reminder: The top two finishers in the AL and NL each receive a bye for the first round. But the No. 1 seed still matters because it determines which team gets home-field advantage in the Championship Series.

• In AL: The New York Yankees (93-66) lead the Cleveland Guardians (92-67) by 1.0 G
• In the NL: The Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64) lead the Philadelphia Phillies (92-65) by 1.0 G

The Yankees Hold the tiebreaker in the AL while the Phillies Got it in the NL.

Otherwise, the team with the best overall record will receive home field advantage in the World Series. The Dodgers, Phillies (1.0 GB) and Yankees (2.0 GB) are the only teams that still have a chance.

So how will everything turn out?

Here’s a guess that’s worth playing for the AL:

• Orioles Keep the first wild card, the number 4 seed
• tiger Claim the second wild card, the No. 5 seed
• Royals Make do with the third wild card, the number 6 seed

• Padres Keep the first wild card, the number 4 seed
• Mets Keep the second wildcard, number 5
• Atlanta takes the third wildcard, No. 6 seeded by Diamondbacks

Finally, the No. 1 seeds go to the Yankees and the Phillies. The latter has an easier task at the end of the season (3 at the Washington Nationals) than the latter Dodgerswho finish with three against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

What you should know about statistical milestones

Aaron Judge is aiming for 60 HR

Two years after hitting an AL-record 62 homers, Judge has now hit 58 homers with three games remaining. And with home runs in five straight games, it’s fair to say he’s hot.

If Judge can reach 60, he will join Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire as the only players to record multiple 60-homer seasons.

It’s also worth noting that because of his 41 home runs, Juan Soto and Judge could become just the sixth teammate to combine to hit 100 home runs in a season. They joined two Yankees pairings in particular: Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig in 1927 and Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle in 1961.

José Ramírez goes to 40-40

He won’t join Ohtani in the 50-50 club, but Ramírez already has 40 stolen bases and only needs two home runs to reach 40 in that department.

The Guardians third baseman would be the seventh member of the 40-40 club and the first to get there as a corner infielder.

Paul Skenes is aiming for an ERA under 2.00

A year after going to the Pirates with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, Skenes has a 1.99 ERA in his first 22 starts as a big leaguer. He still has to play against the Yankees on Saturday.

If he keeps his ERA below 2.00, he will become the first rookie starter ever to do so in the live-ball era, which dates back to 1920.

To be sure, Skenes (-270) probably already has a lock on the NL Rookie of the Year award. But that would still be cool, which should be worth something.

Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale are going for Triple Crowns

There have only been three seasons in which there were pitching Triple Crown winners (i.e. guys who led in wins, ERA and strikeouts) in both the AL and NL: 1918, 1924 and 2011.

Skubal and Sale are trying to make it a fourth time in 2024, but they don’t have it in the bag yet.

Here is the deal for Skubal, the Tigers’ ace, in the American League:

• Wins: Skubal 18, three more with 16
• EPOCH: Skubal 2.39, Ronel Blanco 2.88
• Crossed out: Skubal 228, Cole Ragans 223

And here’s where things stand with Sale, Atlanta’s ace in the National League:

• Wins: Sellout 18, Zack Wheeler 16
• EPOCH: Sellout 2.38, Wheeler 2.56
• Crossed out: Sale 225, omission 224

Skubal is win-confident and likely in the ERA, but both he and Ragans could start Sunday if the playoff situation warrants it. And while Cease only took a turn on Wednesday, Sale and Wheeler each still have room to make another start.

In any case, Skubal and Sale are the likely winners of the Cy Young Award races in the AL and NL, respectively. Wheeler and Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA, 47 saves) would have strong cases in virtually any other year, but not this one.

What you should know about other storylines

Will the White Sox surpass the 1962 Mets?

The White Sox lost their 120th game on Sunday, tying them with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in modern MLB history. At the time, it seemed inevitable that they would claim the record.

But the White Sox had a clear message to history this week: Not today.

They defeated the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field, avoiding loss No. 121 until at least Friday.

This will be the first of three final chances to merely tie the 1962 Mets, although they will have to do so in Detroit against a Tigers team that still has a playoff spot up for grabs.

What is learned about key injuries?

Although the Dodgers ultimately celebrated victory in the NL West on Thursday night, it happened shortly afterward Freddie Freeman had to leave the game after twisting his ankle.

X-rays came back negative and Freeman says the Dodgers are “pretty optimistic” he will be ready to go in time for Game 1 of the NLDS next Saturday. However, you should keep your fingers crossed.

As for the Mets, star shortstop Francisco Lindor was scheduled to return to the lineup Wednesday before inclement weather moved into the Atlanta area. That will now happen on Friday in Milwaukee and will be his first start since a back problem forced him out of a game against the Phillies on September 15th.

Of course, the hope is that Lindor’s back stays calm and allows him to be the impact player he was before. He was even leading Ohtani in fWAR when he was injured.

In the meantime, Orioles is right Grayson Rodríguez (Lat-stem) is done for the year and the Yankees are left-handed Nestor Cortes (flexor muscle strain) will miss at least the remainder of the regular season.

The fate of Mets righty Kodai Senga (triceps tension) and Dodgers symbol Clayton Kershaw (Bone spurs in the toe) are currently otherwise unknown. Both could be in play in the postseason, but that shouldn’t be guaranteed until their status is updated accordingly.

The AL West champion Houston Astros are also hoping for good news on Slugger Jordan Alvarez. His sprained right knee will keep him out of action this weekend. As for the playoffs, “Who knows?” is the key question right now.