Atlanta defies the latest playoff odds after a big win over the New York Mets

The Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 5-1 on Tuesday and gained significant ground in the Wild Card race. They also got a big break later in the night when the Arizona Diamondbacks were throttled 11-0 by the San Francisco Giants.

They begin Wednesday one game behind the Mets and half a game behind the Diamondbacks. The Mets hold the second wild card by a game and the DBacks hold the third wild card by half a game. Both the Mets and Diamondbacks are also separated by half a game.

The Braves and Diamondbacks are even in the loss column. That means the Braves are ahead and can at least draw level in the standings. You don’t have to rely on Arizona losing. All the Braves have to do is keep winning, and they’re guaranteed to catch up.

The chances skyrocket overnight

The Braves’ playoff odds improved significantly in a single night. According to FanGraphs, their chances of making the playoffs increased from 46.9% on Monday to 69.9% on Wednesday.

The oddsmakers also value their chances much more. FanDuel put the Braves odds to make the playoffs at -230 and the odds not to make the playoffs at +172. This means they are more likely to make the playoffs than miss them. This is a change from the plus odds before the start of the Mets series.

FanDuel has also completely removed the ability to bet on who will win the sixth seed (aka the third wild card) after Tuesday night. The race is so close now.

The Braves have almost complete control of their destiny and the odds are leaning in their favor.

What scenarios could happen next?

If the Braves win, they will be tied with the Mets in the standings. This part is plain and simple. Things get even crazier if the Diamondbacks lose. The Braves would overtake Arizona and tie for the second wild card by half a game with the Mets.

If Arizona wins AND the Braves win, the Diamondbacks get the second wild card back, but the Braves and Mets are tied for the third wild card.

If the Braves lose, they better hope the DBacks lose too. The Mets will once again lead by two games. If the DBacks also win in this scenario, the Braves will be back where they were on Tuesday morning and have two fewer games to play.

The Braves want to play the direct tiebreaker with the Mets on Wednesday evening. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m., with Cy Young leader Chris Sale on the mound against David Peterson.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks continue their series with the Giants. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. Zac Gallen takes on Mason Black.