Are all the recent restaurant closures a harbinger of what’s to come? —Oliver S., St. Louis
This question is a logical follow-up to last week’s inquiry, where we discussed the unusual number of restaurants for sale. We touched on what potential buyers should do if they are interested, but did not address whether the number of closures was unusual.
This question understandably arises every time the number of closures increases – especially for long-established or well-known establishments. But let’s look at the numbers.
We estimate that in June 2024 there were nine closures and 29 openings; in July there were six closures and 15 openings. This time last year there were six closures in June versus 22 openings, and in July there were three closures and 14 openings – roughly the same percentages as this year.
In St. Louis, the number of independent restaurant openings has far exceeded the number of closings in every month since we started tracking in 2008. At the time, it was thought that it would be wise to track all recession-related closings, which we feared would be a large number. That never happened.
Since we started tracking the numbers, restaurants are opening and closing at a remarkable pace across the metro area. For every one closing, there are about three restaurant openings—a ratio we’ve always found fascinating. (There was a small dip at the beginning of the pandemic, but the numbers rebounded once restaurants fully reopened.)
What the future holds is anyone’s guess. Some argue that a relatively stagnant population in metropolitan areas cannot support the existing number of restaurants (let alone a larger number of restaurants). And with ongoing inflation and high labor costs, a significant decline in restaurant numbers would only make the remaining restaurants more robust and viable.
As far back as I can remember, the blind positivity of restaurant owners has eclipsed the “doom is imminent” mantra of skeptics, a phenomenon I hope—and expect—to continue.
Follow George on XInstagram, his Arch eats Podcast or send him an “Ask George” email at [email protected]. For more information from St. Louis Magazinesubscribe, sign up for the newsletter or follow us on Facebook, Xand Instagram.
