Analytics Review: Nebraska Football at Purdue

It was the worst of times; It was the best time. At least that’s how the Huskers’ first and second halves against Purdue went.

The Huskers’ special teams were anything but good in the first half. In my Illinois review, I said that everything from the 25-40 yard line should be four-down territory. This week I’m calling on the Huskers to keep Dylan Raiola on the field anywhere between the 10 and 40 yard lines. Nebraska’s next three opponents will likely all be undefeated when Nebraska plays them. Nebraska needs to be aggressive and maximize its scoring opportunities in these games.

All season I’ve been worried about Raiola’s “firsts” – his first game, his first P4 opponent and his first away game. Halftime of that game brought another first: his first game without a lead at halftime.

The Boilermakers made a good opening drive after halftime and rolled into field goal range, with their win probability peaking at 45.6% two plays before their field goal.

Nebraska entered the contest as the 13th-best team in the first half and the 17th-worst team in the second half. However, the freshman responded well and led a scoring drive thanks to help from Purdue, which committed three penalties on the drive.

The eventual touchdown pass from Raiola to Jahmal Banks was the most important play of the game with a win probability of 11.6%. Nebraska would stay above 75% WP for the rest of the game.

I also have to thank Nebraska for improving the two areas I mentioned after last week’s loss.

Nebraska managed five explosive plays on offense, compared to just two against Illinois. It’s even more impressive when you consider that Nebraska played 11 fewer scrimmage plays against the Boilermakers than the Illini.

Against both Illinois and Purdue, Nebraska started the drive on average at its own 30. The difference was that Illinois started its average drive at its own 22, while Illinois started at its own 42.

The Huskers were once Kicker U. From 2005 to 2020, they were second nationally in field goal percentage at 80.8%. Since then, Nebraska has been the second worst in the country at just 60%. Luckily, the Huskers have also attempted the 12th fewest field goals since 2021, but are in the middle of the pack this season.

Nebraska will struggle to win games unless its four-down strategy changes. The special teams EPA for Nebraska against Purdue was -12.05. At this point, I trust Raiola’s play to gain eight or fewer yards on two downs rather than picking up some on third down and sending the kicker out of bounds on fourth down.

Tony White’s defense must also be prepared to step up as the offense commits to a higher-risk, higher-reward philosophy.

For the fourth time this season, Nebraska emerged victorious by a wide margin, but there are many things they can still do better. Over the last five games, Nebraska has outscored its opponents by a total of 93 points – Nebraska’s third-largest point margin in five games since Bo Pelini was fired.

Many people, including myself, have focused on Nebraska’s record in one-score games. However, the Purdue game was an important win. Although it doesn’t fall into the category of one-score games, it was a strange game like many of these one-score games. Nebraska found a way to win in a “weird” game and needs to remember that a game against a better opponent falls into that category.

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