After hitting his 300th home run, Juan Soto tried to imagine the even bigger – and more historic – milestone that might await Aaron Judge.
“I hope he breaks the home run record,” Soto said Wednesday, referring to Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs. “Why not? I think he’s the guy who can literally break the record. He’s shown it every time. I hope he’s healthy enough to do it. I’m going to enjoy it as much as I can, too.”
If Soto can try to pinpoint where Judge, a superstar unique in almost every way — including his relatively late breakthrough in baseball — might ultimately end up, why can’t we?
First of all, it is very, very unlikely that Judge will be able to break the all-time record set by Bonds and Henry Aaron (755 career home runs). This is partly because Bonds debuted at 21, Aaron at 20, and Judge at 24. However, they didn’t break through until their 25th season.
Judge, 32, will likely finish his year in the 315 home run range; Bonds had already hit 374 and Aaron 442 before they reached 33.
Judge reached 300 the fastest in both games played (955) and at-bats (3,431), by a wide margin, but his long road to the major leagues – he spent three years at Fresno State before playing three seasons in the minor leagues – would hurt him if he wants to chase the all-time greatest.
With his 300, Judge is tied with Ryan Howard and ranks 62nd among the records before his 33rd birthday.
The all-time leaders in the U33 league: Alex Rodriguez (debuted at 18) with 553; Jimmie Fox (17) with 500; Albert Pujols (21) with 475; Ken Griffey Jr. (19) with 468 and Mickey Mantle (19) with 454.
Judge, who has about six weeks left this season to get back to 60, has averaged about 45 home runs per year since 2021.
If he were to maintain this pace into his late 30s and early 40s – call it the Tom Brady career trajectory, where his growing intelligence seems to compensate for his athletic weaknesses – the 43-year-old Judge would surpass Bonds and Aaron’s records in 11 years, four years after his current nine-year contract with the Yankees expires.
What if Judge’s story arc is more similar to Bond’s?
Starting in 2000—the year he turned 36—his batting performance exploded for a hitter whose season-high had been 46 home runs (achieved seven years earlier), and he averaged around 52 over the next five seasons.
Bonds received performance-enhancing help that increased his performance into his late 30s and early 40s.
Judge, who has continued to develop as a hitter as he has aged, has gotten better with experience.
Perhaps the unprecedented dominance he has displayed this season will continue into a series of spectacular seasons: A solid finish over the next six weeks, followed by a pace of 58 home runs per year, would see him overtake Bonds in eight years.
None of the above developments can be considered even remotely likely, but it’s fun to think about – especially in an era of sports where LeBron James can dominate at 39 and Aaron Rodgers gives the Jets hope at 40.
The Yankees know that what they are experiencing is historic and, at least at this absurd level, may only be short-lived.
“What Aaron is doing,” manager Aaron Boone said after Wednesday’s win in Chicago against the White Sox, “few in the history of the game (have) enjoyed the kind of season he’s playing.”
Speculation about an all-time record may be ridiculous, but so is Judge’s campaign and career.
A player who was struck out 42 times in his first 27 major league games continues to identify weaknesses in his game and close them.
He has developed a swing that works and a training routine that has largely allowed him to stay on the field despite the many injuries in his early years.
There are no gaps left for a solid center fielder who has a .333 batting average with a .467 on-base percentage, 43 home runs and 110 RBIs and would be on his way to the Triple Crown if Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t have a .349 batting average.
If for number 99 the time he has already missed is the biggest obstacle to making history, then the time he could miss is the second biggest obstacle.
Due to a torn ligament in his toe, he had to take a break for almost two months last season.
In the 2018/19 season, he missed a total of more than 100 games, first due to a broken wrist and then due to an oblique strain.
Among the miracles he would need to achieve historic feats would be exceptionally good health in the later stages of his career.
However his season and career ends, the Yankees captain has appeared in conversations with legends.
“Hopefully we continue to do some things to stay similar to them,” Judge said.
