According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression could form in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
In a forecast issued Saturday afternoon, the NHC said a low-pressure system had formed over the Bay of Campeche in the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico, causing intermittent rain showers and thunderstorms.
The system is expected to move slowly northward for several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the first or middle half of next week as it moves near or along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas, the NHC said.
According to the NHC, the probability of formation within the next 48 hours is 50%, while the probability of formation within the next seven days is 70%.
It is still unclear how strong the tropical depression will be. The Gulf of Mexico is warm at this time of year and temperatures can intensify the storms.
The climate crisis, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, is also causing record-breaking warming of the world’s oceans. Storms that are rapidly intensifying are also becoming more frequent, making coastal communities particularly vulnerable.
Typically, the maximum sustained surface wind speed of tropical depressions – a type of tropical cyclone – is up to 61 km/h.
If the tropical depression develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Francine, the Austin American-Statesman reported. The system had showered Texas and Louisiana with heavy rain for days on Saturday.
“The northern flank of this system is moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico,” said Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist at Fox Weather. “The non-tropical low pressure system and associated front, which together have been dumping heavy rains on Texas and Louisiana, are the second components.”
“An approaching cold front that will move into the Gulf (on Saturday) is the third.”
In addition to the possible tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico, the NHC was tracking a low pressure system over the central tropical Atlantic, which also produced intermittent showers and thunderstorms.
In its forecast, the NHC said the system is expected to develop gradually as it meanders over the next few days. A tropical depression may also form early next week and is expected to move west-northward across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 10 mph during the middle to late next week.
According to the NHC, the probability of this tropical depression forming between Saturday and Monday was low at 10%. The probability of forming next week was 40% on Saturday.
