The Yankees begin a week-long home series with three games against the Royals today. In June, the Yankees won three of four games at Kauffman Stadium. In one of the Yankees’ last impressive team split statistics, they are 22-6 against AL Central teams. Another notable split is that the Yankees are 47-33 against teams with a record above .500, a winning percentage of .587. The Royals rebounded from a seven-game losing streak last week and are coming off a crucial home series sweep of the Twins.
With three weeks to go in the season, it’s clear that this series features two of the best position players of 2024. They could ultimately deny each other some personal accolades. Without Bobby Witt Jr. and his .340 average, Aaron Judge, with a .321 batting average, would have an outside chance of overtaking Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .326 batting average, for the batting title. With Judge comfortably leading the league in home runs and RBIs, he would be in the running for the Triple Crown.
On the other hand, if Judge weren’t around, Witt Jr. would likely be on his way to AL MVP, which could be a unanimous decision. While Witt and Judge are tied in fWAR, Judge has a significant advantage in on-base percentage and slugging, so he’s likely still favored for the award even if he doesn’t hit 60 home runs. Witt Jr.’s defensive numbers are top-notch, while Judge is below average (20th percentile in outs above average). However, voters may give Judge some leeway because he’s playing outside of his natural outfield position this year.
The Royals’ victory over the Twins moved them 2.5 games ahead of the second wild card spot and six games ahead of the Tigers, who are the first team eliminated from the AL wild card race. It’s entirely possible that these two teams could face each other in the wild card round if the Yankees don’t win the AL East. This would be Kansas City’s first playoff berth since beating the Mets in 2015.
In short, the Royals have exceeded their preseason projections thanks to their starting pitchers. This season’s starting unit ranks third in ERA and second in fWAR. Unfortunately, the Yankees are seeing the Royals’ starting trio that helped them become one of the surprise teams of the season.
Monday: Carlos Rodón vs. Brady Singer (7:05 p.m. ET)
Carlos Rodón will look to build on his impressive performance against the Rangers, where he threw six innings, allowed just one hit and struck out a season-high 11 batters. Coming into the final month of the season, that’s an improvement over last year. However, Rodón has struggled to deliver the consistency that was expected of him when he signed. His 14-9 win-loss record reflects his season well: There were more good starts than bad, but also too many duds. He’ll look to improve his 4.19 ERA, 4.30 FIP and 1.22 WHIP before this start. His home and away splits show a stark difference: At home, he has a 3.08 ERA and hitters are hitting .196/.269/.383, while on the road he struggles with a 5.01 ERA and hitters are hitting .262/.329/.470.
Brady Singer relies on a sinker-slider combination and has posted a 48.7 percent groundball rate. Although the right-hander had a rough August, posting a 5.53 ERA, he’s had two solid outings, allowing two earned runs in each game against Houston and Cleveland. Overall, he enters Tuesday with a 3.35 ERA and a 3.4 fWAR.
Tuesday: Marcus Stroman vs. Seth Lugo (7:05 p.m. ET)
Stroman got off to a rocky start against the Rangers. He lasted just 3.2 innings, allowed five runs on nine hits, and didn’t make it past the fourth inning. As with many of his tough outings, it wasn’t that he had any trouble forcing groundballs. He forced ten, but several of them landed in gaps. Combined with two hard-hit doubles, Boone came in to take the ball from him in the fourth inning after he had allowed three runs in that inning.
Perhaps the smartest addition of the offseason was the Royals’ signing of Seth Lugo to a three-year, $45 million contract. He’s been a reliable part of the rotation, pitching 186 innings with a 3.05 ERA, which ranks ninth among qualified pitchers. With an average fastball of 92.2 mph and a strikeout rate in the 38th percentile among pitchers, nothing stands out on his baseball sant side but elite. However, he maintains a low walk rate of 6.0 percent, a solid groundball rate of 45.6 percent, and simply finds ways to get outs with his arsenal of nine pitches, as Baseball Savant counts it. Among his pitches, his curveball, which he throws 16 percent of the time, stands out as particularly effective. The pitch has a 10-run value and a batting average against of .173. It has a big break and drops 12 percent more than other curveballs of similar velocity.
Wednesday: Luis Gil vs. Cole Ragans (7:05 p.m. ET)
Luis Gil had a brilliant outing in Chicago last Friday afternoon after missing two weeks on the injured list with a back injury. He threw six scoreless innings, allowed one hit and two walks, and struck out seven batters. The velocity of his fastball was a little lower early in the game, but in the later innings he reached his season average of 96 mph.
With Gil reaching an innings count he’s never reached before, monitoring his velocity will be important. Our Smith Brickner wrote about the difficulties Gil may have moving to the bullpen. In the analysis, he explained that Gil’s fastball has fewer induced vertical breaks and even a slight drop in velocity is more of a problem for him than for most pitchers. This helps explain his struggles before going on the injured list in late August when his fastball’s velocity dropped off. While there have been some bumps along the way, Gil holds a 3.24 ERA and has shown electrifying stuff. Despite all the debate and speculation about his move to a relief role, the Yankees are going with Gil in the rotation for now.
The series ends with a stark contrast to the first two Royal starters. Cole Ragans is a tough left-hander with a big swing and miss. In his last start, he threw six hitless innings with seven strikeouts against the Twins. That game saw him reach the 200-strikeout mark for the season. His strikeout rate is an impressive 29.6 percent. His changeup is deadly, with a whiff rate of 48.2 and a batting average of .191 against it. His five-run value for his offspeed pitch is in the 92nd percentile.
