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Matt Bowen, editor at ESPN
It’s Week 1 of the 2024 fantasy football season, and every manager has a loaded roster, right?
My cousin Michael has been telling me this every year for over a decade in early September. He has the team to win. That’s how I see my team in our 10-team home league this season. Fresh off the draft on Labor Day weekend, I’m loaded with wide receivers – Amon-Ra St. Brown, AJ Brown and Puka Nacua – and I also drafted quarterback Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts in the fifth round.
See you in the championship game, Michael.
We think we know who will be good and who won’t, but honestly none of us have all the answers. I still have a whole bunch of fantasy questions as we prepare for the Week 1 slate based on player usage and specifically offensive usage, which are key factors that determine fantasy value. So let’s dive deeper into this today and focus on six situations I’ll be watching this week and throughout the start of the season.
Lawrence looked really good in his preseason video. He plays in a very quarterback-friendly Jacksonville Jaguars offense under coach Doug Pederson that could likely add even more projected rushes to his resume. And the club rebuilt its wide receiver room after the departure of Calvin Ridley by adding big-play rookie Brian Thomas Jr. via the draft and the vertical stretch skills of free agent Gabe Davis.
So why did Lawrence register an ADP of QB18 on ESPN this draft season?
Sure, Lawrence has a tough matchup against the Miami Dolphins defense this Sunday in Week 1, which keeps him in the middle of the QB2 ranks to start the season. I get that. However, in an underrated – and potentially very explosive – Jags offense, there is a path for Lawrence to finish the season as a top-10 quarterback.
Since the Houston Texans signed Stefon Diggs to partner Nico Collins in the offseason, there has been a feeling that Dell is now just the No. 3 WR for quarterback CJ Stroud. This is reflected in fantasy drafts, as both Collins (WR14) and Diggs (WR20) have been targeted much earlier than Dell (WR30). But let’s not forget Dell’s electrifying movement skills and ability to produce in a low target volume.
Last season, Dell broke his leg in Week 13, but from Weeks 1-12 he averaged 16.5 points with seven touchdowns. Dell also has the ability to breakout, scoring 20 or more points in four games. He can do that without a lot of volume. Just look at his breakout performance in Week 3 of last season in Jacksonville, when he scored 25.5 points, caught five of seven passes for 145 yards and scored a touchdown.
Remember, Dell plays under coordinator Bobby Slowik in a highly designed passing game that also creates isolation opportunities on the perimeter. And that’s where Dell can use his movement skills to set up and overcome one-on-one coverage. He’s a flexible starter in all formats and has the power to give you viable numbers in the lineup on five or six targets per week.
I have Williams rated as an average QB1 for the Week 1 game against the Tennessee Titans. Maybe that’s a bit over the top for a rookie making his first pro appearance, but I’m banking on his ability as a natural playmaker in an offense that could create more movement at Soldier Field on Sunday.
Why? Because of Tennessee’s new defensive coordinator, Dennard Wilson, one of my former teammates in Washington. Wilson has a brilliant understanding of the football and I would expect the Titans to really force Williams to work after the snap with late movement, cover and simulated pressure. He’ll see a lot that wasn’t seen this preseason or in Pac-12 games.
This is where Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can put Williams in a position where he can get to the edges and create targeted reads and shooting opportunities, which also gives the quarterback a chance to use his legs. This is a great test for Williams early in the season, and one where he will also have to play outside of the structure to produce numbers for your fantasy lineup.
It’s time for Drake London to produce
London averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game in his first two NFL seasons and caught just six total touchdowns in 33 games. Of course, we can point to the offensive issues and poor quarterback play in Atlanta during that time. We all understand that.
However, with the Falcons signing Kirk Cousins in the offseason and installing a new offensive system under coordinator Zac Robinson designed to provide more passing power, it’s time for London to show us what he can do. His potential, or at least his potential, is reflected in his ADP (WR15), which puts him ahead of DK Metcalf, Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, DeVonta Smith, and others.
So what do I want to see from London in Week 1 against a really good Pittsburgh Steelers defense? A game plan that creates intermediate windows to keep the in-breakers from play-action. Rhythm throws for Cousins. More work inside for London as a power slot target, plus the red zone throws (with projected matchups) that give him scoring opportunities. In short, I want London used as a three-level volume target, with the numbers to back it up.
Cleaning up the Bengals backfield
That’s a tough one. Sure, Zack Moss is the classic north-south player who should have a lot of running volume as a running back on early downs. That includes goal-line runs for a Cincinnati Bengals offense (with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup) that can move the ball. In eight starts for the Colts last season, Moss scored 20 or more fantasy points in three games and had at least 18 runs in six games. That fits the way we want to use Moss in the game plan here.
But I also consider Chase Brown, who had a higher ADP than Moss, a viable option due to his versatility and characteristics as a pass receiver. Yes, Brown can find daylight as a runner, and he has the contact balance to gain extra yards. The upside here is Brown’s ability to serve as an under-runner or as a target in the passing game for quarterback Joe Burrow. Last season, Brown averaged 14.4 yards per catch on screen receptions.
As we prepare for the Bengals’ Week 1 game against the Patriots, I see flex value for Moss and Brown in fantasy lineups in deeper leagues.
Packers wide receivers to watch
The Green Bay Packers have a deep and dynamic wide receiver roster, and a quarterback in Jordan Love who can attack all three levels of the field. Both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed were targets for fantasy managers in the mid- to late-round draft, which I understand. A healthy Watson can stretch the field and escape coverage on crosses, and has explosive playmaking skills. And Reed showed his versatility as a rookie last season, playing eight games of 15 or more points.
But let’s also keep an eye on Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks on Friday night in Brazil against the Philadelphia Eagles. Doubs caught eight touchdowns last season and had double-digit fantasy production in nine games. Wicks, meanwhile, played his best football at the end of the season, scoring double figures in four of his last six games, including a career-high 24.1 fantasy points in Week 18 against the Bears. If you’re in a league with at least 10 teams, both receivers are potential streaming options or waiver adds this season.
