Hurricane Milton’s rapid intensification into a Category 5 storm is declared

In about 24 hours – a single day – Hurricane Milton developed from a tropical storm to a powerful Category 5 hurricane. With winds of 180 miles per hour on Monday afternoon, it is one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic.

Meteorologists expect Milton, currently raging in the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula, to make landfall in western Florida late Wednesday. By then, the storm will likely lose some of its strength as it faces disruptive winds and dry air. However, Milton is still expected to be an “extremely dangerous” hurricane when it arrives, according to the National Hurricane Center. Direct hit storm surge in densely populated Tampa Bay could reach 15 feet, the center said in a statement Monday.

According to Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University, Milton is not a typical Atlantic hurricane. “It is extremely rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, move east and make landfall on the west coast of Florida,” he said in an email. “There are actually no recorded hurricanes that have done this and made Category 3+ land.”

Even more unusual is the speed at which the storm defied all forecasts, reaching winds of more than 100 miles per hour between Sunday morning and early Monday afternoon. Milton experienced “some of the most explosive intensification this forecaster has ever seen!” a National Weather Service forecaster wrote on Monday.

The simplest explanation is unusually warm sea water.

Check out the table below. It shows ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico near a record high. The red line is the year 2024 and the blue line is the average for the last decade.

And heat is a key factor in rapid intensification, according to Brian McNoldy, a climatologist at the University of Miami who created the graphic below. Put simply, hotter water evaporates more easily and the columns of warm, moist air rising from this evaporation quickly intensify.

It’s not entirely clear what caused the Gulf to warm, although scientists suspect a combination of factors, including climate change – which is increasing the ocean’s base temperature – as well as ongoing effects of El Niño, natural climate fluctuations and perhaps even a volcanic eruption.

According to Benjamin Kirtman, director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, a joint initiative of the University of Miami and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), another key to Milton’s explosive growth is the lack of wind shear in its path. . Wind shear describes the change in wind speed and direction – essentially chaotic air – and can disrupt hurricanes. The storm is expected to encounter stronger shear as it approaches Florida, weakening its strength and making it more likely to weaken before landfall.

Additionally, according to McNoldy, Milton is also relatively small in width. On Monday, hurricane-force winds extended only about 30 miles from the storm’s center. Small hurricanes are “generally more prone to highs and lows,” he told Vox, because they can be more easily influenced by weather phenomena.

Although Milton is expected to grow in size before it reaches Florida (partly through a complex process of eyewall replacement), it probably won’t be huge when it hits land – again, measured by diameter. “It’s good news all around,” he said. Smaller storms tend to produce less storm surge, which describes sea level rise. Compared to Hurricane Helene, for example, which was a massive system, forecasters expect Milton to cause less storm surge.

That doesn’t mean experts like McNoldy, a Florida resident, aren’t worried. As of Monday, Milton appeared to be heading directly toward Tampa Bay, the most densely populated region on the state’s west coast. This is the same region where a dozen people were killed by Hurricane Helene in recent days.

“This is a very ominous prognosis,” McNoldy said. “It will still be an extremely strong hurricane.”

Update, October 7, 5:30 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to reflect the increasing severity of the storm.