Hurricane Milton is forecast to be a Category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida

(This is a breaking news story and will be updated several times throughout the day.)

Hurricane Milton made a stunning show of force early Monday, strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane with winds estimated at 150 miles per hour, as Florida’s west coast braces for another devastating blow of drowning storm surges and fierce winds.

The rapid intensification of 60 mph over a 10-hour period over the steamy Gulf of Mexico comes with evacuations beginning Monday in some of the most vulnerable and populous counties along the Gulf Coast, where storm surges of up to 12 feet deep are forecast. Milton’s approach has triggered hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings along much of the West Coast from Dry Tortugas to the Big Bend region.

A flood warning is in effect for Palm Beach County through Thursday morning and there is a chance of sustained tropical storm-force winds beginning Wednesday morning. 3.75 inches of rain has already fallen in West Palm Beach from Friday through Sunday, so any rainfall associated with Milton will fall on saturated ground.

The storm, which has strengthened to a Category 4 storm, is expected to reach near Category 5 strength and make landfall as a major hurricane Wednesday through early Thursday. Category 5 hurricane force winds start at 157 mph.

Pasco, Pinellas and Manatee counties have already asked some residents to begin moving out of manufactured homes, some barrier islands and vulnerable populations such as nursing homes and special needs residents. State officials said Sunday they expect Milton’s evacuations to be the largest since Hurricane Irma in 2017, when an estimated 6 million people left the state.

For more information on evacuations, visit www.floridadisaster.org.

“Evacuate if you are in an evacuation zone,” Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said during a Sunday briefing. “If you are not in an evacuation zone and your home was built according to Florida building codes, you may be able to remain in place.”

Milton’s locations are primed to develop into a severe Category 4 hurricane before possibly weakening slightly before landfall. As of 6 a.m. Monday, Milton was located about 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa with winds of 125 mph and moving east-southeast at 8 mph.

The National Hurricane Center Milton forecaster project will strengthen to a top-level Category 4 storm on Tuesday with winds of 155 miles per hour. Category 5 storms start at speeds of 250 km/h.

According to the National Weather Service in Miami, there is a 53% chance of sustained tropical storm-force winds in West Palm Beach as of Wednesday morning. The chance of tropical storm force winds is 46% in Fort Lauderdale and 23% in Miami.

The chance of hurricane-force winds is 16%, 12% and 5% in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami, respectively. At 6%, 4% and 1%, the likelihood of sustained hurricane winds of 74 miles per hour or more is much lower.

More: Hurricane Season 2024: Yes, we had Debby and Helene, but October is Florida’s peak season

Those odds are likely to increase in the next few days as forecast models better understand what Milton is planning.

“Models continue to disagree on the exact forward speed and timing of landfall of the system, but at this point Wednesday through Thursday appears to be the most likely scenario,” NWS Miami meteorologists said in a morning forecast. “Nevertheless, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and point of landfall, with model solutions extending as far north as Citrus/Hernando County and as far south as Lee County.”

Milton will enjoy the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, giving it the fuel for rapid intensification, which is “explicitly predicted” in the NHC’s forecast.

The center of Milton’s track cone takes it into the densely populated Sarasota area as it makes landfall, but there was a chance it could hit the coast early Monday anywhere from Fort Myers in the south to just north of Cedar Key in the gentle Big Bend region hits north.

NHC director Michael Brennan warned Sunday against focusing too much on Milton’s cone, pointing out that the average track error three days later is about 100 miles.

“We also expect Milton’s wind field to increase in size as it approaches the Florida Peninsula, so we will experience the widespread impacts of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds on both coasts and parts of the peninsula.” said Brennan.

State officials are rushing toward landfall to clear remaining debris from Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in the Big Bend region near Perry on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 storm.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, who said crews were working around the clock to clear debris, withdrew people sent to North Carolina and Tennessee to help with its recovery so they would be in Florida before landfall.

“If we have an I-4 storm, there will be a lot of power outages,” DeSantis said. “There are a number of possibilities that could occur. They may be expecting a larger increase than Helene.”

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She deals with real estate, weather and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate digest. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism; Subscribe today.

Hurricane Milton is forecast to be a Category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida

ByJasper

By Jasper

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