After 2016, Michigan Democrats fear Kamala Harris is unclear

EASTPOINTE, Mich. (AP) — Bill Clinton stood with Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan outside a suburban Detroit grocery store two days before the 2016 election when it was clear to both of them that Hillary Clinton would lose the state. “They didn’t listen to you,” Dingell recalled the former president saying.

The Democrats in the state have seemed to be ascending Since then, he has controlled the governor’s office, both Senate seats and the state legislature. But some party leaders here worry the trend won’t be enough to distance Vice President Kamala Harris from former President Donald Trump. Harris’ campaign team is betting that they have spent significantly more money on advertising than Trump and over one stronger voter reach Program.

Michigan is a state that Harris will almost certainly have to win to capture the White House, and Democrats’ concerns are rooted in fears that polls both here and in other battleground states are not registering all Trump supporters during the campaign enters a critical final phase.

“Anybody who’s from Michigan knows, if you believe the polls, that I have a bridge that I’m going to sell you somewhere,” said Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Democratic Senate candidate.

Dingell and others said Harris is still relatively new to many voters and she needs to make her plans clearer to voters. The congresswoman also said Harris needs to counter Republican efforts to portray her as out of touch with Michigan workers.

The state of things today? “No one is winning this state right now,” Dingell said.

Patrick Schuh, a veteran Michigan Democratic campaign strategist who is now deputy national director of the Democratic voter advocacy group America Votes, said the voters they surveyed “still want to learn more about what Harris stands for as a candidate.”

In a way, it is just that worrying point in an election campaign, and some Michigan Republicans have concerns that echo Harris supporters, pointing to Harris’ spending advantage and the lack of direct turnout efforts from the Trump campaign.

Trump and allied groups have concentrated in this auto industry stronghold with the false claim that Harris wants to “get rid of all gasoline-powered cars,” according to an ad that began airing this week.

As vice president, Harris was the deciding vote for the Biden administration’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which provides $7,500 in tax credits for the purchase of new electric vehicles.

In an ad aired in Detroit this week, Harris highlighted her biography as a former California attorney general and district attorney who “fights for others.”

A complication for Harris was opposition to the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in the Middle East in the Detroit area, particularly in Dearborn, an area that is home to the country’s largest Arab American community. After lasting months After discussions with Harris’ team, communication with some Arab American leaders has stalled, according to Arab American news publisher Osama Siblani, a prominent community leader. Phil Gordon, Harris’ national security adviser, met virtually with several Arab and Muslim leaders on Wednesday to discuss it escalating war in the Middle East.

The death of a Dearborn resident who Dingell and other community leaders said this week was killed in South Lebanon has only sparked outrage in the traditionally Democratic area. The death of Kamel Ahmad Jawad was confirmed on Wednesday by a spokesman for the White House National Security Council.

Harris could overcome divisions within the Democratic coalition by boosting turnout in Wayne County, home to Detroit, where low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black community leaders noted that excitement grew as Harris entered the race over the summer and that some momentum continues in the majority-black city of Eastpointe, north of Detroit.

Those who knocked on doors for Harris last week were met by several who were determined to vote for her, although some undecided voters wanted to learn more.

“I’m just going off of what I see in the commercials, and Kamala just seems more middle-class,” said Taneisha Stinson, a single mother for whom affordable child care is a top issue.

“It’s understandable that some Democrats are nervous given Michigan’s recent close results in the presidential election,” said Amy Chapman, a Democratic strategist in Michigan. Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes. In 2020, Biden was ahead by just over 154,000 votes, but only by 2.8 percentage points.

“If people are worried, they should be,” said Chapman, who was Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager. “But not in a ‘Oh no’ sense, but in a ‘We have to work hard’ sense.” ”

Harris has not ignored calls to compete aggressively in Michigan, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 when she became the first Democrat to lose Michigan in 28 years.

Since launching on July 23, Harris’ campaign and outside groups supporting her candidacy have spent more than $79 million on advertising in Michigan, compared with Trump and groups supporting him, which have spent more than $62 million, according to media tracking. Dollars were spent by the company AdImpact. According to the company, Harris and pro-Harris groups set aside more than $40 million for ad spending in Michigan from Oct. 1 through Election Day, compared to $25 million for Trump’s campaign and allied groups.

Harris’ campaign also has 52 staffed campaign offices in Michigan, including three in Detroit, two in the Grand Rapids area, the state’s second-largest metropolitan area, and two in voter-populated Oakland County, Detroit’s wealthier northwest suburbs. Trump’s campaign said it had dozens of offices across the state and in similar locations.

“The Democrats’ financial resources dwarf anything the Republicans have,” said former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “But Trump is making stops in places the president has never visited before, and they are effective with such slim margins.”

Partly due to a shortened campaign, Harris has visited Michigan three times, with a fourth stop scheduled for Friday in Flint. By contrast, Trump has visited the state 11 times, with the 12th scheduled for Thursday in Saginaw. His stints spanned various regions, while Harris’ efforts largely focused on the Detroit area.

Public polls and findings from campaign staff from both major parties suggest that neither candidate has a clear advantage. On a call with donors this week, Slotkin said her campaign’s polls showed Harris was “underwater,” a synonym for “behind,” in the state. Her comments to donors were first reported by Axios.

When asked to clarify her comment, Slotkin dismissed the term as “a simple way of saying that this is an exceptionally close race.”

Still, the scenario is not what Democratic activist Lori Goldman expected after the party’s enthusiasm grew with Harris’ entry into the race in July.

“What did we see?” The money was flowing in like crazy. Everyone was excited. There was such a bump,” said Goldman, who founded Fems for Demsa leading Democratic voter group in Michigan based in Oakland County. “And now, you know, it’s neck and neck.”

“It’s PTSD,” Goldman said.

Goldman was referring to what Dingell remembers as a result of her unheeded warnings in 2016. The Democratic candidate only ran four times in Michigan from June until the election. Instead, she focused more on Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, all of which she also lost.

Polls showing Clinton ahead in Michigan did not accurately reflect Trump’s support in the state, Michigan Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond said, as did others at the time.

“Smart Democrats have a healthy sense of paranoia,” Hemond said. “If the polls are as far off as they were in 2016, we’re done.”

___ Beaumont reported from Detroit.