Tropical Storm Milton is forming in the Gulf of Mexico and is targeting Florida before quickly becoming a hurricane

Tropical Storm Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. “This could be worse than Helene for parts of (Florida’s) west coast,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.

MIAMI – A worrying change in the forecast now shows the potential for a dangerous situation hurricane will hit the west coast of Florida later this week with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges and torrential rain.

The nascent cyclone was named Tropical Storm Milton by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday afternoon, but that is now expected intensify quickly Transitioning into a hurricane early to mid next week, eventually peaking Florida on Wednesday.

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The forecast for Milton has changed significantly over the past 24 hours, showing greater potential for a stronger storm.

“I don’t like the way this is shaping up at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” said FOX weather meteorologist Bryan Norcross. “It just means there’s a significantly higher chance (Saturday) than (Friday) that a memorable, devastating storm will hit Florida in the coming days.”

What’s new on Tropical Storm Milton?

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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Milton?

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Milton is forecast to gain momentum early next week and turn east/northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength on Monday, with rapid strengthening early in the week, the NHC said.

Under the current schedule, Milton would reach the Florida Peninsula around Wednesday, although winds could increase late Tuesday. Long before the storm, waves of heavy rain are forecast starting Sunday, particularly in central and southern Florida.

“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have a significant storm off the coast (of Florida on Wednesday),” Norcross said. “How significant is that? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Good chances. And these models say hurricane. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category two, category three. We can’t even rule it out.”

The National Hurricane Center now predicts that Hurricane Milton will hit the west coast of Florida as a Category 2 hurricane.

“That means we have to prepare for at least Category 3. Some credible computer models predict a Category 4,” Norcross said. “There’s really no good news in any of these different computer predictions, but here we are.”

The NHC shares these concerns.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, a strong hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to hit the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” the agency said Saturday morning.

What are the options for storm surges?

Norcross said it’s too early to predict how much storm surge this system could produce on Florida’s west coast, as it depends on Milton’s route and landfall in western Florida. But it will be significant and dangerous.

“In some areas it will likely be higher than Hurricane Helene,” Norcross said. “It is important that everyone in Central and South Florida stays well informed as things are moving quickly.”

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest precipitation is expected to come from the Interstate 4 corridor and farther south, where 5 to 8 inches of rain could fall over a widespread area over the next week, with nearly a foot of rain in some areas.

Since much of the rain will be spread over several days, widespread flooding is not expected. However, if repeated thunderstorms hit the same region, problems could arise.

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The region expected to be affected is further south of where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as places like Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

In addition to rainfall, rough seas will lead to the risk of increased currents and erosion on beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

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“The bottom line is that we have the potential for a significant, problematic and devastating storm heading toward Florida on Tuesday, Wednesday of next week,” Norcross said.

What to Expect for the Rest of Hurricane Season?

Waters in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf remain sufficiently warm for development, and October is typically the busiest month for landings in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, September 10th.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is November 21, when Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the Eastern Atlantic, but neither poses an immediate threat to landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance being observed off the coast of Africa.