Next week I’ll keep an eye on the tropics

TAMPA, Fla. – Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Gulf of Mexico, with moisture spreading over Florida from Sunday into next week. There is once again a high chance of tropical low pressure development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

At about the same time, a cold front will move south toward the northern Gulf Coast. If the forming low can remain separated from the front, it could develop into a tropical or subtropical storm and move to Florida’s west coast on Tuesday or Wednesday. Computer models have gone back and forth in development, but more and more models show a tropical system.

Regardless of developments, heavy rainfall will occur around the Florida Peninsula Sunday through Wednesday. Models are moving the heavy rain risk area further from the I-4 corridor south and across a larger portion of South Florida. Towards the end of the weekend and into next week, the location of the heavy rain swaths is likely to become clearer. With the ground saturated from a rainy summer, further downpours would quickly lead to flooding problems.

With cleanup and debris removal still underway along our coast, the impact of heavy rain, wind and storm surge would be greater. We will continue to closely monitor the latest trends throughout the weekend, update you on any changes, and continue to be on the lookout for any observations or alerts.

GFS/EURO 7-day precipitation models