Clemson-FSU may have lost its luster, but Saturday’s ACC matchup will show a lot

No one could blame Dabo Swinney for wearing a bit of a knowing grin this week.

His Clemson Tigers will visit Florida State on Saturday in a game that was once expected to be not only a marquee game in the ACC but also a litmus test for how to run a program in the modern era.

The marquee part is gone – FSU is 1-4 and starting a backup quarterback.

However, the litmus part is still there. These are two programs with different philosophies that may be going in different directions – they’re just not the directions most would have expected for the season.

Clemson is 3-1 and ranked No. 12 in the country, dusted off and looking great after a blowout loss to Georgia in week one. This result sparked heavy criticism of Dabo’s reluctance to use the transfer portal to strengthen the roster.

Florida State, meanwhile, has had a disastrous start to a season that was supposed to build on the momentum of last year’s 13-0 regular season campaign. A year ago, the transfer portal delivered big performances for coach Mike Norvell. This time it was a bust, the program faltered and top recruits fled their verbal commitments.

Does this about-face justify Swinney’s decision to stick with homegrown talent? (The only other programs that didn’t make a transfer last offseason were Army, Navy and Air Force.)

Perhaps. Or maybe not, especially at the national championship level where the Tigers once competed. It suggests that while his approach may not reach a championship-level ceiling, it still provides a high floor. Dabo’s worst season was a year ago when the Tigers lost 9-4. That seems pretty tempting right now if you’re in Tallahassee.

“I think certainly everyone is surprised at where their record is, but you have to give some credit to the other teams as well,” Swinney said. “You played against good teams, you know?”

The Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Memphis and SMU. They beat Cal by five. Nobody could have imagined that. Now they host a hot Clemson team without their starting QB, DJ Uiagalelei, the former Clemson starter who Norvell brought in as a transfer from Oregon State. The job will fall to Brock Glenn.

“Football is hard,” Swinney said. “It’s a tough game. You’ve heard me talk about this a lot – a few games here or there can really affect the psyche of a team, the confidence of a team. A few games.” Go your way, and next thing you know it’s different.

“These kids are growing up today with a lot of noise and a lot of pressure – more than ever before in the history of football when it comes to control, expectations, criticism and just plain negativity,” he continued. “And that’s hard.”

Swinney has a point, but that also raises the stakes on Saturday.

The perception of a program, both internally and externally, seems to be more important now than ever. In the age of the transfer portal, any player who loses faith in direction can find a comfortable path. It can also strain the wallets of funders needed to fund NIL collectives.

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In the meantime, Norvell must resist the idea that this is more than just a blip on the radar for prospects — both potential transfers and traditional high school recruits. Everything goes faster these days. Everything is on a knife edge.

Saturday can be a nationally televised chance for Florida State to change the narrative and provide a shot of optimism. Or it could be an opportunity for Clemson to get on its rival’s nerves and cheer on Doak Campbell. It would put them at 4-1, but Dabo would also have more justification for what he’s selling – loyalty to his recruits by not bringing in backup talent.

Norvell would like to do it the Clemson way — or something similar. Any coach would do that. Developing players over the years, building a long-term culture and relying on veterans and experience is a proven concept. The portal was intended to provide a bridge to the Seminoles until their high school recruiting efforts replenished the roster.

A perfect regular season – despite the playoff snub – was expected to pay off. Florida State has always been a desirable and exciting place to play college football. It’s even better when it wins and wins. Add in the uncertainty and difficulties at in-state rival Florida, and they should have been able to attract more than their share of Sunshine State talent.

Instead, it all seems to have evaporated in just over a month. Three four-star recruits (two from Florida, one from South Carolina) have withdrawn in the last month alone. FSU’s current recruiting class has just 11 players and is ranked 39th in the country, according to Rivals.com.

There’s still a lot of time until signing day, but that’s not what anyone expected either.

The worse secondary school recruiting is, the more the transfer portal is needed. It may be worth it, but it’s a roll of the dice, as FSU knows all too well from recent years.

Clemson, meanwhile, wants to prove it’s back and getting better, maybe even enough to make the loss to Georgia a bad day at the office. After six consecutive playoff appearances, they failed to qualify for the last four playoffs. However, in the 12-team era, there are plenty of opportunities to come back.

Saturday could be another step in that direction. And another step in a different direction that has been unimaginable for the Seminoles of late.