Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

The only matchup this weekend with ranked teams on the same field is No. 9 Missouri in its first road test against No. 25 Texas A&M on Saturday in Week 6 of college football. Let us give our updated prediction for the game.

Missouri is on an eight-game winning streak and coming off an open weekend, but played its last two games closer than hoped, edging out Boston College and Vanderbilt by a combined 11 points.

Since losing a 10-point decision to Notre Dame in the opening game, the Aggies have won four straight games and became the first SEC team to start conference play 2-0, defeating Florida and Arkansas.

What can we expect in the game?

Here’s what to look for when Missouri and Texas A&M meet in this Week 6 college football matchup with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Ags on the ground. Texas A&M’s passing performance has been vulnerable since Conner Weigman’s injury, which means Le’Veon Moss and the ground game are picking up the slack, and so far, to quite an effect.

Moss is averaging more than 94 yards rushing per game and the team is averaging more than 230 yards on the ground, ranking 13th among FBS teams this season.

Missouri is a solid No. 19 nationally against the run, allowing just under 92 yards per game from opposing defenders and giving up just 2.84 yards per attempt and a single touchdown.

2. Who is the QB? Missouri prefers to have Marcel Reed under center rather than Weigman, whose usage is questionable and whose decision will not be made until the game.

Reed isn’t a serious threat as a passer, as A&M ranks just 117th nationally in passing efficiency, but he is an agile runner and solid in scoring position, accounting for the team’s last 8 straight touchdowns.

Missouri has done well up front to field more mobile quarterbacks, keeping Thomas Castellanos and Diego Pavia in check for most of the last two games.

3. On the line. Missouri can take a hit offensively, as quarterback Brady Cook has thrown for 200 yards in the last four games, beating elite skill opponents like Luther Burden and Theo Wease, and Nate Noel is averaging 5.5 yards per carry against this season Ranked teams and 6.4 ypc overall.

This performance will depend on Missouri’s ability to protect its backfield, and it will come against Texas A&M’s front seven, which has been a team strength this season.

Nic Scourton is the anchor of the line and has already racked up 3 sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss. Other standouts up front include Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner, a trio overall that has proven capable of consistently generating pressure, throwing opposing passers off their timing, and destroying plays.

Most analytical models differ on the outcome of this game, which is expected to be very close.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Missouri is the current favorite by a slight margin and is projected to win the game in 51.8 percent of the computer’s recent simulations.

That makes Texas A&M the favorite with the remaining 48.2 percent of Sims.

But it’s likely to be close, as Missouri is expected to do just 0.7 points better than Texas A&M on the same field, according to the model’s latest projection.

More… Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas A&M is a 2.5-point favorite against Missouri.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 48.5 points.

And it set the moneyline odds for the overall win for Texas A&M at -130 and for Missouri at +110.

Missouri has the talent edge on the offensive side of the ball, has the more productive quarterback-receiver pairing and poses a challenge to the Aggies on defense.

But while Missouri’s receivers have the strength to get behind some of A&M’s secondary defenders, Cook will be under serious pressure on about half of his throws, which will have an increasingly negative impact on the Tigers’ ability to maintain the tempo on the To control the street offensively.

A&M has a little more talent on the line, a mobile quarterback who can spice up the offense with some effective gainers, and enough rushing threat to threaten Mizzou in the trenches.

College football headquarters chooses…

More… Missouri vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert model

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 11am Central
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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