Phillies vs. Mets 2024 NLDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets will meet in the postseason for the first time ever in a National League Division Series that promises plenty of excitement. The Mets are riding a wave of momentum after a strong second half of the season, an epic postseason win over Atlanta and a narrow elimination game win over Milwaukee in the wild card round. The Phillies posted the second-best record in the majors and led the NL East every day from May 3 through the end of the season en route to their first division title in 13 years. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in Philadelphia, with the winner advancing to face the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres in the NLCS.

Playtimes

Game 1: Mets at Phillies, Saturday, October 5, 4:08 p.m. ET, Fox

Game 2: Mets at Phillies, Sunday, October 6, 4:08 ET, FS1

Game 3: Phillies at Mets, Tuesday, October 8, time TBC, FOX/FS1

Game 4: Phillies at Mets, Wednesday, October 9, time TBA, FOX/FS1 (if required)

Game 5: Mets at Phillies, Friday, October 11, time TBA, FOX/FS1 (if required)

Pitching matches

This should be easy to figure out. The Phillies pitching staff is clearly better than the Mets.

Philadelphia has the best or second-best starting rotation and bullpen in the playoffs, depending on how exactly you assemble each “trusted pitching group” after the season. Zack Wheeler will challenge Chris Sale for the National League Cy Young Award, Aaron Nola had a great season (and was great in the last postseason with a 2.35 ERA) and Cristopher Sánchez (with his super changeup) and Ranger Suárez ( with his five-pitch mix). and Commander) would likely all have an advantage over any starter the Mets can field. The Phillies also have the advantage of being able to set their rotation.

The Mets got a lot out of veterans Sean Manaea (particularly with the post-arm slot change), Luis Severino (particularly with the improved fastballs and additional sweepers), and Jose Quintana (who is throwing the four-seam less than ever before). . Tylor Megill is their wild card, and he’s much better when he’s hitting over 96 mph in the four-seater (like he did in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader against the Braves). José Buttó, Ryne Stanek and Reed Garrett were good counterparts for Edwin Díaz, who is a strong goalkeeper even in one of his weaker seasons.

But the Phillies also have answers in the bullpen. Carlos Estévez didn’t miss a beat after receiving a trade deadline deal from the Angels, Jeff Hoffman might be the most underrated backup in the game if it weren’t for left guard Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering’s unique sweeper is one of them best pitches in the game. In summary, you should take the Phillies’ pen.

This one should be easy to find out. But the regular season came to a near standstill, with the Phillies winning seven of 13 games, and the Mets holding a slight 555-525 lead in the entire regular season. They’ll probably find out who’s better if we give them another 1,000 games. Or five! – Eno Sarris

Go deeper

Mets discuss whether to activate Kodai Senga for NLDS: sources

Why the Phillies will win

The low-scoring wild card round in October showed the power of great pitching, and the Phillies boast one of the deepest pitching staffs left in existence. It’s deeper than New York’s. The Phillies’ pitchers have experience and health. Wheeler, Sánchez and Nola are a formidable trio in a five-game series. The Phillies trust five relievers. They have two all-star firefighters in Hoffman and Strahm who can step in in any high-stress situation.

The Phillies, who have never faced the challenge of staying sharp during a first-round bye, had to be thrilled to see the Brewers and Mets go three games. New York’s pitching showed some holes in Milwaukee. To secure the series win, the Mets traded to presumptive Game 1 NLDS starter David Peterson in the ninth inning of Game 3. New York may need to delve deeper into its rotation, going with fifth starter Megill for Game 1 of the NLDS. They rode Díaz hard last week. All this added stress is cumulative.

The Phillies have to defend themselves against New York’s momentum. They won 54 games at Citizens Bank Park in 2024. They believe this is a significant advantage; Maybe it’s less important against a divisional opponent. The Mets have spirit, a powerful force in October.

All of these things are intangible assets. There will be questions about the Phillies’ lineup until they prove otherwise, but this week’s wild card games showed that it’s all about hitting on time. The wounds of last October’s NLCS run deep in the Phillies’ clubhouse. They were the better team on paper then and are the better team now, so nothing is taken for granted. That’s a decent mindset heading into this October. — Matte Yellow

Why the Mets will win

Comfort against Philadelphia’s best pitchers. Over the last three seasons, the Mets have faced either Nola or Wheeler 15 times – and won 12 of those games. (Nola posted a 4.25 ERA in those games, Wheeler’s 4.79.) The Phillies have a 104-68 record in all other starts in the two regular seasons. Steal a game against either of those two at Citizens Bank Park (assuming the Phillies stay at Nola in Game 2) and the Mets will return to a raucous Citi Field — likely a far cry from the timid crowd at the club’s last postseason appearance 2022 – with the chance to end the series at home.

Towards the end of the season, the Mets showcased the diversity of their offense. New York is scoring with more power than in recent seasons: It ranks sixth in baseball with 207 home runs, one spot ahead of the Phillies, and power obviously plays a role in the postseason. But thanks to the contact skills of José Iglesias and Francisco Lindor and the speed of Brandon Nimmo and Tyrone Taylor, the Mets can also generate runs when needed. They have recently developed a penchant for building big innings that overwhelm an opponent and explode five or six in a frame to completely change a game. – Tim Britton

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Phillies Player Spotlight: Trea Turner, SS

A lasting image remains from the bittersweet NLCS Game 7 last October: Turner waving an off-speed pitch from the strike zone. It wasn’t a specific one; There were too many to count. Turner went hitless in his final 15 at-bats of this series against Arizona. That came after an NLDS against Atlanta in which he went 8 of 17 with four extra-base hits.

Turner is a star, but he’s more cunning than most star players. He ended this season with a decent run. But Turner has been prone to chasing pitches all year. When he’s hot, he’s unstoppable. Turner hit 38 percent of his home runs in a 12-day span in July. Then he hit two home runs from July 20th to August 30th. Turner wasn’t always focused on stealing bases in 2024. When he ran, he often pulled back to protect his legs.

Now there’s nothing to hold back. – Yellow

Mets Player Spotlight: Pete Alonso, 1B

How about this for a turnaround? Alonso could have extended his tenure and the Mets’ season with the biggest swing of his life in what may have been his final outing as a Mets and has fans screaming louder and louder to move on this winter. It ended a prolonged slump — he hadn’t had an extra-base hit in two weeks — and could spark the kind of hot streak that has eluded him this season. Alonso has struggled with the pressure of a platform season all year; Maybe that will ease this burden. As Lindor said, “If Pete does that in the postseason, he’ll get paid.”

Coach Carlos Mendoza has said all season that Alonso’s stick can spark an attack. Alonso has more power than anyone in New York’s lineup, and he has absolutely mastered Nola over the course of their career: a .320 average, a .370 on-base percentage and a .680 slugging percentage in 54 of his plate appearances career, including five home runs. – Britton

Story from the tape

Required Phillies reading

In his first base office, Bryce Harper is paying it forward with the MLB’s young hitters

The attitude that led the Phillies to their first NL East title in 13 years

The essence of Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies’ everyman slugger with an empathetic spirit

The staying power of Nick Castellanos: How an opening idea sparked a 162-game season

An absolute must for Mets

Pete Alonso sparks Mets rally over Brewers in Game 3, advances to NLDS: Takeaways

Scenes from a Mets celebration: “This is the standard”

In an instant classic, the Mets secure their playoff spot with a win over Braves

The Mets Revival: Grimace, OMG, and a Turnaround No One Expected

Go deeper

Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

Go deeper

Guardians vs. Tigers ALDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

Go deeper

Yankees vs. Royals ALDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

(Image above: Francisco Lindor: Rich von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Bryce Harper: Harry How / Getty Images)