The Padres advanced to the NLDS and lost one of their biggest advantages

The San Diego Padres advanced to the National League Division Series on Wednesday night after a 5-4 win over the Atlanta Braves. It was a microcosm of the second half of the Padres’ 2024 season; Quality pitching, bullpen depth, luck and timely, situational hitting. It also took away San Diego’s biggest advantage over other playoff teams, including their NLDS opponents, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Padres scored all five runs in the second inning, capping a two-out rally against Braves starter Max Fried. Luis Arraez singled off a game-winning home run by Kyle Higashioka, then Fernando Tatis Jr. tipped a ball to third base, leading to an infield single. Jurickson Profar added an even weaker-hit infielder-grounder and loaded the bases for Manny Machado. Machado doubled in two and Jackson Merrill followed with a base-clearing triple to extend the lead to 5-1.

Padres starter Joe Musgrove then came around after a shaky first inning, retiring eight Braves in a row in the fourth inning. But San Diego’s game and future prognosis quickly changed when Musgrove faced Braves star Marcell Ozuna. Higashioka and the Padres bench noticed that Musgrove’s velocity decreased by several miles per hour on both his fastball and curveball. And after a visit from the coaching staff, Musgrove left the game. And in doing so, it deprived the team of its greatest advantage for the future.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 02: Joe Musgrove #44 of the San Diego Padres adjusts his hat against the Atlanta Braves during the fourth inning in game two of the Wild Card Series at Petco Park on October 02, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

The Padres’ pitching depth will now be tested heading into the NLDS

The Padres’ lineup has depth and quality, led by Machado, Tatis, Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. Luis Arraez rarely strikes out, Profar is having the best season of his career, and Higashioka unexpectedly has one of the highest home run percentages at bats this year. While their scoring in the second half was exceptional, the team’s defense was lacking aside from Merill and Machado.

Defensively, San Diego ranked just 20th in Major League Baseball in run added value, according to Fangraphs. Other advanced defensive metrics, including UZR, ranked the team even lower. Overall, however, the Padres’ lineup is well above average, even when factoring in mediocre defense and baserunning. But her real strength heading into October was pitching. Especially when pitching.

In a time with more pitching injuries than ever before, San Diego entered the Wild Card Series with a fully healthy starting team. Michael King, Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish gave the Padres four options they could rely on for both length and quality. But Musgrove’s injury, which the team described as “tightness in his right elbow,” immediately changed that prognosis for the future.

Cease and King remain two of the best pitchers in the National League, and Darvish has generally pitched well since returning from a long absence. But assuming Musgrove is out of the playoffs, which is a near certainty due to an elbow injury, the Padres will now be forced to resort to a much less attractive option in a potential and crucial fourth NLDS game. In place of Musgrove or Darvish, San Diego will have to turn to a bullpen game or risk starting Martin Perez or Randy Vazquez against a fearsome Dodgers lineup.

Perez was brutal in 2024, with an expected ERA of 5.38 and a FIP of 4.90. Vazquez was arguably even worse. He posted an ERA of 4.87 and an expected ERA of 5.89 with just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The Padres’ vaunted pitching staff became much thinner when Musgrove left the mound.

Even a closer look at Darvish’s 2024 reveals a lot to be concerned about. His hit rate allowed is by far the highest of his career. His average fastball velocity has dropped half a mile per hour since 2023, his FIP is the highest of his career thanks to a career-low strikeout rate. And his average exit velocity allowed is also 89.4, another career high, up from 88.4 in 2023. He would still be one of the postseason’s best starters in Game 4. But in the third game, those numbers look much more concerning.

San Diego still boasts one of the best bullpens of the postseason, although closer Robert Suarez struggled mightily in September and reliever Jason Adam has now allowed four runs in his last 5.2 innings. With Musgrove out, the relievers who were already heavily used in August and September will now be forced to pitch even more innings. That doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t succeed, and the Padres are still only slight underdogs against the Dodgers, but the margin for error has become significantly smaller.