With their backs against the wall once again, the Braves turn to Fried to save their season against the Padres

The Braves have been in a pseudo-do-or-die mode for some time, but they face their second elimination game in three contests on Wednesday night. After last night’s 4-0 loss in San Diego, the Braves now need to win back-to-back to advance…or be sent off with another first-round exit.

In game previews, we generally talk about the starting pitchers. On that note, the Braves have Max Fried on the regular starting break tonight. Although his season started particularly atrociously, Fried has essentially been Fried for a while – he finished the regular season with 3.4 fWAR in 29 starts (174). ¹⁄₃ innings), which included a month-long break due to injury. Since Fried became a full-time starter in 2020, his xFIP was 3.33… and his xFIP this season was… 3.33. So, yeah, he’s Max Fried, just with some frustrating ball-in-play, sequencing and HR/FB stuff. (Taking park and league into account, we’re talking 63/74/79 in 2020-2023 and 78/84/82 this year; the lines are ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-.)

Fried is coming off a game in which he nearly defeated the Royals, finishing with a K/BB ratio of 9/2 in 8 ²⁄₃ innings; Raisel Iglesias came on after a pair of baserunners got in the ninth and threw a single pitch to end the game with a flyout. Amusingly, while Fried was excellent, neither his FIP (1.78) nor his xFIP (2.83) were among his four best starts of the year – but given his longevity, it was one of his three best starts by Game Score (v2).

Offensively, however, the Padres aren’t quite the Royals (nor are the Cubs or Marlins, two other teams Fried dominated this year). Fried didn’t face them in San Diego this season, but he had a poor outing against them in Atlanta: a terrible K/BB ratio of 2/3 in 4 ¹⁄₃ Innings, the Braves lost a game 3-1. Fried actually danced through the raindrops repeatedly in this game until four Padres reached in a row for the fifth time and then a fielder’s choice came in to score all three runs. One of those batters reached the ball with a walk, the other four were all grounders and only one had a hit probability of over 50 percent. Fried didn’t help himself with the walks and lack of punchouts in the game, but things like that have happened to him here and there…he and the Braves are hoping, if not praying, that it doesn’t happen to him again tonight.

However, the fact is that Max Fried could be just as great as he was against the Royals (or the Marlins or the Cubs), but the Braves still need to score to prevent their season from coming to an end tonight. The zombified lineup they put out there has to constantly deal with the fact that it has a lot of boring bats and all the ball-in-play shenanigans in it, even if the balls are hit well and they’re generally hit enough Scoring Points To make up for the excellent pitches they get almost every day, there’s no time for “general” at this point. Either they overcome the zombies and/or the increased air resistance, or they don’t and that’s it for 2024.

Tonight, among others, they must defeat Joe Musgrove, who missed much of this season with elbow inflammation but still posted 1.4 fWAR in 19 starts over 1999 ²⁄₃ innings. Musgrove’s line is a pretty good 98/98/92, albeit with an elevated xERA that suggests he too can give up and then hit some hard-hit doubles or whatever.

Normally you assume a guy has had a bad year when he goes on the shelf twice in a row because of elbow problems, but that’s not really the case with Musgrove. He was clearly terrible in April (only one not bad start in seven attempts), faltered after a great showing at the start of May, missed three weeks with elbow problems, got off to a bad start, had a good start and then missed quite a bit in the next three months. Since his return, however, he has been difficult to handle: 54/65/79, with his only somewhat questionable start being the one in which he came back and had a K/BB ratio of 1/1 in 4 ¹⁄₃ Innings in which his former team, the Pirates, didn’t concede a single run. Otherwise, he was generally dominant, save for one game in which he had a K/BB ratio of 7/1 but was tagged for three home runs by the Giants.

This is, to put it bluntly, a real problem for the Braves. Musgrove has a deep pitch mix and good control, and while the Braves would just love to sit on his fastball, there’s little chance he’ll let them. Probably best if they figure out what sequences lead to fastballs and curves and try to take advantage of the fact that he’s generally in the zone and hope Musgrove doesn’t notice and start ramming cutters and Sweepers before they do damage… but this strategy also relies on the jump actually doing the damage. The alternative is to just hope that Fried and Musgrove can trade punches until someone blinks too late, but considering that Fried is occasionally prone to getting killed by stupid things that have nothing to do with his pitching skills have to do, it’s also a dangerous game.

Musgrove hasn’t faced the Braves since 2022, when the Padres beat Atlanta in both starts – one was dominant and one less dominant, but showed a late surge from the Padres.

Either way, it’s win-or-go-home time again, literally.

Game information

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres

NL Wild Card Round, Game Two

October 2, 2024

8:38 p.m. EDT

Petco Park, San Diego, California

TV: ESPN2′

Streaming: MLB.tv MLB places more value on short-term enrichment from national broadcast partners than on generating interest in what its own marketing deems to be the “most special” part of the season

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM, ESPN Radio

XM Radio: Ch. 175 (or Chapter 89)