Donald Trump wins in North Carolina as Democrats lose 7% of voters

A voter registration change in the swing state of North Carolina could give former President Donald Trump an advantage in the November election.

Voter roll data for the state showed that the Democratic Party lost about 7 percent of its voter base between 2020 and 2024, whether through voter turnover, departure from the state or death.

On ThursdayThe state’s elections board said it has removed nearly three-quarters of a million people from its voter rolls over the past 20 years Months.

North Carolina now has about 2.4 million registered Democrats, compared to 2.6 million in 2020. Four years ago, there were 2.23 million Republicans, compared to 2.29 million this year.

“Although the overall number of registered Democrats is declining and Republican registrations appear to have been overtaken, the reality is that North Carolina remains a 50-50 state,” said David B. McLennan, a professor of political science at Meredith College Newsweek.

“Many of the state’s new voters and those previously registered as Democrats are now registered as “independent voters” – the largest voter segment in North Carolina. Most independent voters are “shadow parties,” meaning they still lean Democratic or Republican in their voting patterns.”

With the gap between the two groups of registered voters now narrowing, Republicans in the state appeared confident of success.

“This is a historic departure from the Democratic Party. It is also the result of the election of more Republicans at all levels of government and the electoral strength of Donald Trump,” said Matt Mercer, communications director at NCGOP Newsweek in a statement.

“The campaign feels very confident in its position and we will deliver the Tar Heel State for a third time on November 5.”

Newsweek The Harris campaign emailed Monday seeking comment.

Conservative political activist Charlie Kirk did not share Mercer’s confidence, saying on his podcast Monday that Trump was not safe in North Carolina because the polls remained too close. A poll conducted Monday showed Harris leading the state by 2.4 percent.

How North Carolina could influence the winner

As one of seven battleground states, North Carolina has become a focus for the election campaign. Polls continually show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris at one almost equally.

Both candidates will be keen to win the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, which could put them over the 270 votes needed to win.

Trump has won the state in the last two elections, with former President Barack Obama being the last Democrat to win it in 2008.

If Trump were to win North Carolina, he could top 270 by dominating Pennsylvania and Georgia, or a combination of those two with two others: Michigan, Arizona and/or Wisconsin.

Harris might have an easier time with five potential three swing state wins, including North Carolina.

If Trump loses North Carolina, he would need three of the big hitters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan or Arizona, as well as a fourth swing state.

Conversely, Harris could have an even easier time reaching 270 votes without North Carolina, with another five combinations from three other states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

However, the outcome remains unclear until election night as polls continue to show a close race.

Despite the narrowing gap in registered voters, McLennan said younger people may be bad news for the GOP because many have chosen not to register according to party standards for “various reasons” but often lean Democratic.

“I suspect the voter registration numbers are telling, but on Election Day, the presidential election in North Carolina could be even closer than in 2020, when 75,000 votes separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” he added.