American League Wild Card Series Predictions: Our Experts Make Their Picks

The Athletic reports on it live MLB Wild Card Series.

The National League went into overtime to determine its postseason round, but the American League had Monday off to prepare for Tuesday’s wild-card games. The Detroit Tigers shocked baseball by making the playoffs, but will they advance against the Houston Astros? Can the Baltimore Orioles bounce back from last October’s disappointing performance and knock off the surging Kansas City Royals? Our experts rate the two AL Wild Card series below.

Note: Playoff seeds in parentheses.

Detroit Tigers (6) vs. Houston Astros (3)

Go deeper

Astros vs. Tigers Wild Card Series preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

Chandler Rome (Houston): The gap in postseason experience and offensive production is too big to ignore. Tarik Skubal could make it meaningless on Tuesday afternoon. The same goes for AJ Hinch’s “pitching chaos” in the following games. However, with lean running support the task becomes more difficult. A slew of rookies getting through close games with such a small margin of error doesn’t seem like a recipe for dethroning what this sport has come closest to a dynasty.

Keith Law (Detroit): The Tigers have the best pitcher in the American League who can fully rest, and their offense is sneakily good. Jackson Jobe could be penning his 2008 counterpart to David Price.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Houston): The Tigers’ late-season rise to the postseason was a great story, but the Astros are such a proven playoff team that it’s difficult to bet against them. Waiving Yordan Alvarez will potentially hurt Houston, but in a short series, its pitching staff should be able to handle the Tigers. Plus, as a street team, Minute Maid Park is always an intimidating park, but especially in October.

Stephen Nesbitt (Detroit): Since the introduction of the three-game Wild Card Series, the team that won the first game has won every series – a perfect 8-8. (Only one series even went to a third game.) When it comes down to a battle game 1 Lefty, I’m going with Skubal and the Tigers. That doesn’t entirely make sense. 1. The Tigers were 100 OPS points worse than the Astros against left-handed pitchers this season. 2. The Astros beat Skubal by six runs in 12 2/3 innings this season; The Tigers scored just two goals in six innings against Framber Valdez. But what made sense about this Tigers season? We also run the risk of old takes coming to light if everyone chooses the chalk. So, Tigers.

The Astros had a big inning against Skubal in June and he otherwise kept them in check. Now he has a chance to set the tone in Game 1, get the Astros into the elimination zone and bring an unlikely end to their streak of seven straight ALCS appearances.

Go deeper

Tarik Skubal is the AL Cy Young favorite. Meet the “role model” he calls his brother

Andrew Baggarly (Houston): I don’t know how they do it, but the Astros always find a way to make themselves heard in October. They are able to break through the statistical noise and prevail in a short series. Not to disparage the Tigers’ great season – former Houston coach AJ Hinch did a great job in Detroit – but they might have taken a bad hit with this first-round matchup. The Astros haven’t been outright winners in the AL West, but guys like Jose Altuve simply refuse to take off their jersey in October. This is practically in a can.

Sahadev Sharma (Detroit): Tarik Skubal, and baseball is weird.

Jayson Stark (Houston): The Tigers are a great story. But the Astros are a great team. For me there is too much talent on one side of the field. It’s hard to imagine how the Tigers can prevent this lineup from scoring unless Yordan Alvarez is injured.

Sam Blum (Houston): Do you really think I’m crazy enough to face the Astros before the ALCS?

Eno Sarris (Houston): The Astros, even if Yordan Alvarez doesn’t hit, have superior depth in the rotation, bullpen and lineup. And they have a few stars too.

Zack Meisel (Detroit): AJ Hinch’s revenge? Justin Verlander’s Revenge? How about Jake Rogers’ revenge? The catcher, the only part of the Tigers’ return for Verlander who still wears the Old English D, will lead Detroit’s red-hot pitching staff into the ALDS.

Katie Woo (Houston): The Tigers are the most entertaining story in baseball. But betting against the Astros? In October? Light up.

Go deeper

AJ Hinch is back in the postseason, in a place where he’s hard to forget

David O’Brien (Houston): The Tigers are on a roll, but the Astros’ depth and postseason experience will prevail.

Jen McCaffrey (Detroit): If any team can stop the Astros in the postseason, it’s this Tigers team, which made a wild attempt to make it this far.

Patrick Mooney (Houston): Playoff experience is important.

Andy McCullough (Houston): The Astros are the more complete team, with pitchers capable of beating Detroit’s lineup and an offense looking to take advantage of a tired Tigers bullpen. Skubal could swing Game 1 the Tigers’ way, but the Astros are strong enough to overcome this deficit.

C Trent Rosecrans (Houston): The Tigers would be a better story, but the Astros have been here before and that postseason experience is important.

Melissa Lockard (Houston): Detroit seems like a team of destiny, but Houston’s destiny has been the ALCS for years.

The Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes for a postseason run. Can he deliver? (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Kansas City Royals (5) vs. Baltimore Orioles (4)

Go deeper

Orioles vs. Royals Wild Card Series preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

Sahadev Sharma (Kansas City): I can’t believe I’m saying this about the Royals, but their starting pitching will carry them through this round.

Jayson Stark (Baltimore): I feel like people are overlooking the Orioles. This is a mistake. This lineup is healthier than it has been in a long time. And any team that starts Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin in a short series has more than enough starting pitches to win a short series.

Sam Blum (Baltimore): In a matchup of two teams with mediocre September results, I will choose the club that is at home, has postseason experience, and is starting Corbin Burnes in Game 1.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Baltimore): The Orioles were humble last postseason, and I think the one-year-older team will take those valuable lessons with them come October of this year. The Royals were a great story this year, but their offense faded towards the end. That said, if Vinnie Pasquantino makes it back, I would give the Royals a fighting chance. The Orioles also had their struggles, but they finished the season strong and hosting the short series at Camden Yards will be a significant advantage for them.

Andy McCullough (Kansas City): The Orioles played .500 baseball in the second half. The Royals have endured two seven-game losing streaks in the last six weeks. Flip a coin! Kansas City is playing on house money — few prognosticators expected them to reach the postseason.

Go deeper

How Bobby Witt Jr. became “Bobby Baseball”: Nine stories on the way to superstardom

Zack Meisel (Baltimore): The Royals’ strength lies in their rotation, but Burnes and Eflin have been excellent for the Orioles of late. Baltimore’s lineup will take advantage of the opportunity to set up an AL East showdown with the Yankees in the ALDS.

Stephen Nesbitt (Baltimore): I would confidently choose the combination of Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo over Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, but it’s not the Royals’ rotation that turned me off. It’s the bats. Bobby Witt Jr. hasn’t gotten any help lately. The Royals’ .577 OPS in September was last in the majors.

Here’s a breakdown of every player who attempted a hit last month, sorted by OPS in round numbers:

Hurry up, Vinnie Pasquantino! Neither team is heading into the postseason at full steam. The Orioles are 38-40 as of early July; the Royals are 39-37. I trust the deeper lineup will find a way to win this series.

Andrew Baggarly (Kansas City): The Orioles’ offense lost momentum in the second half, and their bullpen never had much of it to begin with. It is a difficult task to win a three-game series away from home. But the Royals might be young and talented enough not to know any better.

Chandler Rome (Baltimore): None of these teams played outstanding ball in September, so picking the team with some momentum seems prudent. Baltimore has won five of its last seven games and has the one-two punch at the top of the rotation to counter Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. Assuming Burnes and Eflin can control Witt, the Orioles should make up for their short-lived stay last October.

Go deeper

“We decided to skip six grades”: The bold move that made Gunnar Henderson an Orioles star

David O’Brien (Baltimore): The Orioles have come a long way since their great start, but their offense is still far superior to the Royals, who have been the worst-scoring team in the majors over the past 30 days.

Jen McCaffrey (Baltimore): The Royals have struggled down the stretch, and that could be a good recipe for the Orioles to advance further in the postseason this time around.

Patrick Mooney (Baltimore): Will the White Sox get a playoff share after losing 12-1 to the Royals?

Eno Sarris (Baltimore): Teams with subpar lineups typically don’t go far in the playoffs, and the Royals had the 20th best bats of the season and the worst lineup last month. You have to score to win!

C Trent Rosecrans (Baltimore): Both teams limped to the finish line, but in the end the Orioles are the better team.

Melissa Lockard (Baltimore): The Royals’ staff could cause some problems for the Orioles, but playing with this lineup in Camden should ultimately give Baltimore the advantage.

(Top photo by Framber Valdez: Logan Riely / Getty Images)