Hezbollah may be able to breach Israel’s Iron Dome, which will likely backfire

• It is estimated that the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah has a stockpile of up to 200,000 rockets.
• Experts say they would likely be able to breach Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.
• But their use could trigger a massive regional war that would destroy Hezbollah.

In recent weeks, Israel has inflicted a series of humiliating blows on the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, reportedly planting explosives in their pagers, killing their top leaders and firing rockets at their bases.

But at any time, Hezbollah could retaliate with a massive missile and drone swarm attack that could devastate Israeli forces and quickly escalate the conflict, analysts say.

The Iran-backed group likely has a stockpile of up to 200,000 missiles, a March report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said.

That could be enough to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system and cause major damage to the country’s cities and infrastructure, experts say.

“A war between Israel and Hezbollah will escalate very, very quickly if it really becomes an open war,” William Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, told Business Insider.

If Hezbollah takes this step, countries including the United States would quickly be drawn into the conflict that is spreading across the region. This could lead to the destruction of Hezbollah.

Israel’s dangerous bet

Following Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7 and Israel’s subsequent occupation of the Gaza Strip, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border have steadily intensified.

The Lebanon-based group has kept up pressure on Israel in solidarity with Hamas, firing rockets across the border that have forced thousands of Israelis to flee. Meanwhile, Israel responded with attacks on southern Lebanon.

At the same time, Israel’s allies, including the United States, have sought to prevent a larger conflict while sending more troops to the region to deter Iran and its allies.

But now Israel is taking on Hezbollah, assassinating several of the group’s senior leaders in Beirut on Friday and launching rocket attacks that killed about 550 people, according to Lebanese health authorities.

“Israel has made the decision to escalate,” Wechsler said, knowing that Hezbollah recognizes that a full-force response could set off a chain of events that could lead to its destruction.

What US involvement means

After its war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah began accumulating weapons as a deterrent and threat. With the help of Iran, it received not only missiles, but also precision-guided weapons and air defense systems.

But in a scenario where Hezbollah uses them to their most devastating effect – which could kill tens of thousands of civilians, cause power outages and destroy infrastructure – the Israel Defense Forces would have the ability to strike back and inflict massive damage on Hezbollah’s response, Wechsler said.

In the event of a full-scale war, “we expect that at least some Iron Dome batteries will be overwhelmed,” an unnamed senior US official told CNN in June. Two unnamed U.S. officials told the publication that Israel believes the Iron Dome could be vulnerable, particularly in the north.

The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

The Iron Dome is one of the most advanced defense systems in existence.

The system consists of a series of 10 mobile batteries that can be deployed throughout Israel. Each battery consists of three to four launchers with dozens of Tamir interceptor missiles and a sensitive radar, the US military’s Iron Dome contractor Raytheon Technologies says.

A breach of the Iron Dome could trigger a vicious cycle of violence, with the U.S. likely to intervene to defend Israel and avenge any loss of American life from a Hezbollah attack, Wechsler said.

Iran, fearing the destruction of its most powerful and important proxy group, could then intervene and use its vast regional network of militias to attack US bases and allies across the region, he added.

It is a chain of events that Hezbollah and its supporters in Tehran are likely to be very wary of.

“The United States will not allow Israel to face an existential threat. They will not allow their partners in the Gulf to be exposed to an existential threat,” Wechsler said.

“It logically makes much more sense for Hezbollah to give in and return in some way to the status quo ante,” he added.

According to some reports, one possibility is that Israel is “escalating to de-escalate,” putting Hezbollah under intense pressure to reach a diplomatic agreement that forces it to retreat further from Israel’s borders, giving evacuated Israeli citizens the could enable return.

However, Hezbollah is showing little sign of backing down for now and launched its first attack near the Israeli capital Tel Aviv early on Wednesday. A rocket that the group said was intended to hit Mossad headquarters was intercepted.

It is a warning shot about Hezbollah’s capabilities.

The danger of the unforeseeable

The great danger, however, is that the war could escalate in ways no one foresaw.

First of all, it is unclear where exactly Hezbollah is drawing its red lines that would trigger a mass missile and drone attack on Israel. Some analysts speculate that Israel is preparing a new ground attack on southern Lebanon to push back Hezbollah.

This could be one of the triggers for Hezbollah to deploy its rocket arsenal. Or it could conclude that Israel has already crossed the red line with its bombing campaign and is preparing for an imminent attack.

“Just because it makes logical sense doesn’t mean it’s going to happen,” Wechsler said of Hezbollah’s incentives to act with restraint.