Best bets and pitching props

Today’s best SP angles

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

The Angle: Driving one of the best bets of the summer.

The Detroit Tigers magic will continue into the postseason and that means Tarik Skubal will get the ball this afternoon against the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. Skubal will win the AL Cy Young and has had a 1.94 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in nine starts since August 7.

He also gave up just 39 hits in those 55-plus innings, and that’s the target of my bet today. Skubal’s sub-4.5 hits allowed are paying off, and he has hit in seven of those nine starts. Skubal could just dish out and hit this under, or he could fall victim to a short leash, which is what happens in the postseason.

Skubal’s current manager is AJ Hinch, who was Houston’s bench boss from 2014 to 2019. He will have a game plan for his pitcher and will certainly be motivated. The Detroit bullpen is rested and also a strength. Six innings and three or four hits are definitely doable. He’s projecting 4.6 goals allowed, so anything at +105 or better is a game for me.

The move: Tarik Skubal Less than 5.5 goals allowed (+128 at bet365)

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres

The Aspect: Michael King’s K potential is underrated.

The San Diego Padres are choosing Michael King as their Game 1 starter for good reason, and that’s because he hasn’t been quite as strong down the stretch. Since the All-Star break, the right-hander has struck out a total of 45 miles in more than 62 innings. He has thrown more punchouts than innings pitched in six of his last 10 starts, including a solid 11.4 K/9 at Petco Field.

The Atlanta Braves had two emotional games yesterday and even if King only gets 15 outs, he can surpass that number. He figures to have 6.5 strikeouts over 90 pitches, which is an excellent base number for his pitch count today. With a potential three-game series with no breaks, there’s no reason to burn the bullpen when King is pitching. Only Freddy Peralta expects more punchouts than King today.

The move: Michael King over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 at bet365)

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Angle: The Mets need length from Severino.

Thanks to yesterday’s doubleheader in which the New York Mets had to use five-plus innings out of the bullpen, today they’ll have to go deep with Luis Severino to give the poor guys a break. Severino is a tricky bet because of his overs, as he usually pitches around 90 pitches but has also reached triple figures in three of his last eight starts. He can go deep today against a Milwaukee Brewers team that fell yesterday and have one of the more powerful lineups in the postseason.

Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have ranked 23rd in WRC+ and 22nd in WOBA. The back end of this order is easy to navigate and Severino can see 27 batters today before handing things off. Even though the pitch count has been shorter lately, Severino has gotten 18 outs or more in four of his last five as the Mets have relied heavily on him, and that’s why he’s starting today after the Mets didn’t need him in Game 2 yesterday’s two-fer.

Severino projects 15.3 outs, but that’s with a low pitch count that could potentially make him inferior at this point. He has an elite framing catcher and pitcher-umpire in Junior Valentine. I would buy the over 16.5 outs to -110 or better, but the market could buy the under based on THE BAT forecasts. You may have to wait and get a better price with this over.

The move: Luis Severino Over 16.5 Outs (+110 at bet365)

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