MLB odds, doubleheader tips

The MLB regular season ends Monday with a dramatic doubleheader in Atlanta between the Mets (88-72) and the Braves (88-72) – a matchup that will determine the final two wild-card spots in the National League.

Both teams need just one win from Monday’s contests to secure a spot in the playoffs. The winner of Game 1 will then likely not use their upper arms for the rest of the day, giving the loser a significant advantage in Game 2.

Not only does that create an intriguing betting scenario, but it also creates a nightmare scenario for Arizona (89-73), which will be hoping for both teams to win. This is the only way the Diamondbacks, who have a tiebreaker disadvantage against both the Mets and Braves, can get into the playoffs.

The team that wins Game 1 will undoubtedly adjust its starter, lineup, and bullpen deployment, and therefore should end up as fairly strong underdogs in Game 2. This gives it a significant reward by saving an upper arm for the Wilds card series that begins on Tuesday.

Game 1: Mets vs. Braves odds

Game 1: Mets vs. Braves prediction

The Braves will turn to Spencer Wechselbach in Game 1 and Chris Sale in Game 2 if needed. The Mets will likely use Tylor Megill in Game 1 and Luis Severino in Game 2 if necessary.

Schlafenbach will look to put an exclamation point on a fantastic rookie season. He posted a WAR of 2.4 and an ERA of 3.47 in 116 2/3 innings. He also has a strong base profile, including an xFIP of 3.39 and xERA of 3.42.

Since the All-Star break, the right-hander has a 2.88 ERA in 72 innings with a 1.01 WHIP and a 110 pitching+ rating. In his last game, he faced the Mets and allowed just three hits and one earned run over seven innings.

Megill, who has struggled to find consistency throughout his career, may not instill the most confidence in Mets fans at this critical juncture.

However, the right-hander has been excellent in five starts since returning from a minor league assignment on July 30, posting a 1.78 ERA and an opponents’ batting average of just .187.

Megill’s underlying results over this period were also quite good. He has a K-BB% of 19.6 and an xFIP of 3.28. He has a Stuff+ rating of 110 during this period and is allowing a contact rate of 73.5%.

With plenty of quality weapons, both bullpens enter the game in good shape. Over the last month, Braves relievers had a 2.82 ERA while the Mets bullpen posted a 3.62 mark.

Mysteriously, All-Star closer Edwin Diaz took a 5-0 lead in the Mets’ win over Milwaukee on Sunday, throwing 26 pitches in his one inning. His status for the doubleheader is unknown. Otherwise, both bullpens are in good condition.

Neither offense has been particularly effective against righties of late. Over the last month, the Braves have posted a wRC+ of 94 against right-handed hitters, while the Mets have posted a wRC+ of 89.

Game 1: Choice between Mets and Braves

Both starters have been in excellent form of late and will face an opposing team that enters the field in relatively modest form.

Any signs of trouble for either starter should result in a quality arm coming out of the bullpen, making sense to back this matchup to stay under 7.5 runs.

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Additionally, if the opportunity arises, betting on both doubleheader split possibilities at odds of around 3/1 could be an effective strategy. Neither of these rivals will easily concede in Game 2, but chances are the game will ultimately end with a significant pitching mismatch.

Best choice: Under 7.5 runs (-102, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin breaks down the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but also has a 180-unit lead himself in verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.