Fantasy Football Pulse Check: Have high hopes for the Jets’ offense faded given Week 4’s poor performance?

When the Jets traded Aaron Rodgers, the intent was clear – they were a win-now team and were looking for a stable veteran quarterback to lead them on the road to the Super Bowl. Fast forward, and the limited results were mixed.

The Jets are 2-2, with both of their wins coming against two of the NFL’s weaker teams, the Tennessee Titans and the New England Patriots. What should have been a layup against the struggling Denver Broncos instead resulted in a disappointing 10-9 loss in which the Jets failed to score a single touchdown.

They just didn’t look like a team ready to make the playoffs.

From a fantasy football perspective, the first four weeks of the season have created significant concerns across the Jets’ offense. The fact that two first-round fantasy picks came from this team makes it even more concerning. The Jets have never managed to score more than 24 points in a game, and while we didn’t necessarily expect Rodgers to turn the offense into a high-performing unit, the level of performance fell far short of expectations. Rodgers’ appeal should be an increase in efficiency, but his production hasn’t translated into volume and has left a bad taste in the mouths of fantasy managers.

Is it time to panic about the Jets’ offense?

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Outside of the Superflex leagues, Rodgers was not selected as the starting quarterback. However, his effectiveness directly impacts the team’s fantasy stars, so we must first analyze his performance to put the performances of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson into context. But don’t worry – it won’t take long.

Rodgers’ Week 1 performance was disappointing, completing just 13 of 21 attempts for 167 yards, one touchdown and one interception. It was his first game back and we gave him a pass. Weeks 2 and 3 showed improvement with two touchdowns in each game, but volume remained disappointing. In Week 4, Rodgers completed 24 of 42 attempts for 225 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s all – nothing that really stands out as a significant catalyst for fantasy production.

Pulse Check: Is Rodgers really the improvement we were looking for?

I’ll give Rodgers another pass because this performance was to be expected. Although this duel was difficult, the road ahead is not getting any easier. The Jets next face Minnesota, followed by Buffalo, Pittsburgh and New England. It’s hard to imagine a high passing volume in any of these matchups. This performance gives us a taste of what’s to come in the weeks ahead and Rodgers is likely to continue to disappoint and his issues will impact the receiving corps.

Garrett Wilson, WR

Rodgers’ performance clearly has the biggest impact on Wilson. Looking at Wilson’s stats coming out this week, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers are frustrated with a player they drafted in a one-two deal. Wilson has just 15 receptions on 26 targets, with one touchdown, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats (WR34 overall).

Week 4’s performance was actually better than we could have hoped for, considering Patrick Surtain consistently shut down the top wide receivers. The fact that Wilson managed five total receptions is a testament to his talent. Wilson lost a fumble in that game and without that, his fantasy performance would have been similar to the last three weeks. At least there is consistency.

However, when you’re being outpaced by players like Khalil Shakir (who I love, by the way), Jalen Nailor, and your own teammate Allen Lazard, it’s understandable why fantasy managers are concerned.

Pulse Check: Have We MASSIVELY Exceeded Wilson’s ADP?

In 2023, Wilson was targeted 168 times. Even with the addition of Mike Williams, there was no reason to believe Wilson’s volume would be an issue. The theory behind Rodgers’ addition was that Wilson was already an elite receiver who just needed a more efficient quarterback to increase his touchdowns and overall production. But through four weeks, Wilson is averaging a 59% catch rate, which is barely better than his 57% catch rate from 2023. That is not the increase in efficiency we expected. To make matters worse, Wilson has never rushed for more than 60 yards in any game and has only scored one touchdown in four games. This means he only has four touchdowns in an entire season.

Poor efficiency, minimal volume, lack of touchdowns – sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

His production is following a similar pattern to last year, and if things don’t change soon, fantasy managers will be in complete panic. We’re not benching Wilson yet – he’s still putting up game-worthy numbers – but that’s not what we expected when we picked him. We were hoping for a Davante Adams-level production, but we were left with an Allen Lazard-level performance. Oh, the irony!

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Breece Hall, RB

Since the Jets’ passing game is difficult, one would think that the running game would be the focus. However, that wasn’t the case either. The Jets rank middle of the pack in rushing attempts and yardage, averaging four yards per carry in Week 4. That’s decent, but not what you’d expect from a team with an improved offensive line and an experienced quarterback. The bigger problem is that Breece Hall isn’t hitting 100% of those numbers. The emergence of Braelon Allen limited his workload just enough to take away his true ceiling.

Hall’s fantasy production starting in Week 4 wasn’t worrisome. He was the RB6 in half-PPR and averaged 17.7 points per game. However, it was frustrating to compare his numbers to those of Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, both of whom averaged over 26 points per game. Hall’s production was good but not elite.

Pulse Check: It was just a bad game – Hall is still the RB1… right?

At the start of the season, Allen was considered a valuable late-round pick that would provide Hall with a chance to win the league if Hall got injured. However, after limited action in Week 1, Allen has carved out a consistent role by contributing on the ground and in the passing game. He has demonstrated solid efficiency and touchdown equity and has proven to be an excellent complement to Hall.

In Week 4, Hall managed just 10 carries for 4 yards and two receptions for 14 yards, compared to Allen’s eight carries for 34 yards and one reception for 12 yards. Fantasy managers are starting to worry about a potential split in the backfield. While I think this is an overreaction, it’s hard to ignore Allen’s efficiency. Still, Hall remains the front-runner and we will continue to use him as a top-12 option. However, if the Jets’ offense doesn’t improve, the sweet dreams of Hall finishing as the RB1 overall might just be pipe dreams.

BONUS PULSE CHECK – Where do Allen Lazard and Mike Williams fit into this mess?

I’ve already mentioned Lazard and his involvement was somewhat predictable. Do I trust Lazard enough to launch him with confidence? Not yet. Can he be a potential low-end flex option during off weeks or when you’re dealing with injuries? Absolutely! What we know about Rodgers is that he sticks with his favorite targets and Lazard is clearly one of them.

The bigger question is how Mike Williams fits into this offense.

Williams wasn’t yet a major factor, but we knew his involvement would gradually increase as he recovered from a torn ACL last season. He looked better in Week 4, with four catches on five targets for 67 yards. Although the production wasn’t overwhelming, he clearly found a role. However, we need to see more before we can trust him in the lineups. With the Jets facing some tough defenses in the coming weeks, Wilson will likely face the top cornerbacks, which could open up the opportunity for Lazard and Williams to see increased targets. Rodgers is a smart quarterback who knows how to exploit matchups, and that could be of great value to both Lazard and Williams moving forward.