Top picks from the NFL betting splits for Sunday September 29th

Today we have an extensive NFL Week 4 Sunday slate with 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where the smart money is using our VSiN NFL betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Saints (2-1) just lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Eagles 15-12 as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Falcons (1-2) fell just short against the Chiefs, losing 22-17 and failing to cover as a 3-point home dog. This line started with Atlanta listed as a 1-point home favorite. The crowd thinks “the wrong team is being favored” and rushes to the window to take on trend dog New Orleans. However, even though 64% of spread bets are on the Saints, we have actually seen that line move further towards the Falcons -1 to -2.5. This signals a sharp “Fade the Trendy Dog” backward move in Atlanta as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Falcons receive just 36% of the spread bets but 57% of the spread dollars, a notable, sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. John Hussey, the lead umpire, is historically 86-57 (60%) ATS for the home team. Those who want to watch the Falcons’ sharp move but are wary of putting points around a key number in a potentially close game could instead target Atlanta on the money line at -140.

The Vikings (3-0) just defeated the Texans 34-7 and easily won at home by 1.5 points. Meanwhile, the Packers (2-1) just defeated the Titans 30-14 and won by 3 points. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The crowd is praising the undefeated Vikings with 68% of spread bets. Even though Minnesota received such lopsided support, we saw that line completely change to Packers -2.5. Some deals are even as low as -3. This signals a sharp “dog-to-favorite” reversal from the Packers, with the pros backing the unpopular home team in a “Fade the Trendy Dog” situation. Green Bay receives only 32% of the spread bets but 49% of the spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian betting discrepancy “lower stakes, higher dollars.” A big reason for the Packers’ move is the fact that Jordan Love is expected to return to center after suffering an injury at the end of the season opener. Once again, Sharps who want to follow the Packers’ sharp move but are wary of a close win not covering the number could instead have Green Bay play on the moneyline at -145.

The Bengals (0-3) narrowly lost to the Commanders 38-33, losing as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Panthers (1-2) just won their first game of the season, defeating the Raiders 36-22 as a 5.5-point road winner. This line started with Cincinnati listed as a 7-pound road favorite. The public sees a “real” spot for the struggling Bengals and 71% of spread bets have Cincinnati scoring the points. But despite the Bengals receiving such lopsided support, Cincinnati’s rating fell from -7 to -4.5. Essentially all the movement and liability falls on Carolina and the points, despite the Panthers being the unpopular game. Dogs scoring 4.5 points or more are 16-6 ATS (73%) this season. Andy Dalton has gone 46-35 ATS (57%) in his career as a Dog, including 1-0 ATS this season. Carolina enjoys the “rest vs. fatigue” advantage as the Panthers played on Sunday while the Bengals played on Monday night and now have a short week of travel. The Panthers are also in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot (+4.5 to +10.5) running through key numbers 3 and 7. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here as the total has risen from 45.5 to 47. The Over receives 57% of the bets but 65% of the money, suggesting slight public support but also respect towards Smart Money.

The Commanders (2-1) just defeated the Bengals 38-33 and won as road dogs by 7.5 points. On the other hand, the Cardinals (1-2) narrowly trailed the Lions 20-13 and were unable to cover as 3-point home dogs. That line started with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The audience sees two equally strong teams and doesn’t know whether to score or record the points. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split, we saw Arizona fall from -4.5 to -3.5. And several trades increase the Commanders +3.5 (-115), suggesting a possible matchday drop to 3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all when the bets are even, as the oddsmakers theoretically have even action and no reason to adjust the number. So from the line movement we can conclude that the respected professional money is grabbing the street dog Washington plus the points. Street dogs are 20-14 ATS (59%) this season and 523-439 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Dogs +3.5 or higher are 18-10 ATS (64%) with one 23% ROI this season. The Commanders are also a dog-that-can-score system matchup (26.3 PPG, 5th), which allows them to keep pace or cover late into the night. Kyler Murray is just 6-11 ATS (35%) in his career as a home favorite.

The Bills (3-0) just defeated the Jaguars 47-10 to become the home favorites by 4.5 points. Meanwhile, the Ravens (1-2) just earned their first win of the season, defeating the Cowboys 28-25 as 1.5-point road favorites. This line started with Baltimore being ranked as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public can’t believe the undefeated Bills are putting up points and 63% of the spread bets are on Buffalo. Although most bets were on the Bills, we actually saw this line move further towards Baltimore -1.5 to -2.5. Multiple shops peg Baltimore at -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible move to -3 on game day. Why would the oddsmakers give the public a better number when they’re already putting Buffalo in trouble? Because respected professional money sells the trendy dog ​​Bills with great success and instead supports the unpopular home favorite. The Ravens offer notable contrarian value as they are a rare favorite, receiving just 37% of the spread bets in a heavily-betted primetime Sunday Night Football showdown. Baltimore receives only 37% of the spread bets but 47% of the spread dollars, a clear split of bets along the lines of “lower stakes, higher dollars,” which is further evidence of smart people playing against the home team. Those looking to “bet against the public” and watch Baltimore’s sharp move but also want to protect themselves in a potentially close game could opt to play the Ravens on the money line at -135. Baltimore also enjoys a “rest vs. fatigue” advantage as the Ravens played on Sunday while the Bills played on Monday night and now have a short week of travel.