NFL Week 4 odds, picks, best bets

After a comfortable win over the Patriots and a nine-day break, the Jets host the Broncos on Sunday in the early NFL game window (1 p.m. ET, CBS).

Denver picked up its first win of the season against Tampa Bay last week, but the Broncos are in a tough spot here, playing their second straight game on the East Coast and their third road game in four weeks.

The Jets entered the game as 7.5-point favorites and remained consistent throughout the week. However, the total bet was reduced from an opening value of 42.5 to 39.5.

Let’s dive into the matchup.

Broncos vs Jets odds

When the Broncos have the ball

On Sunday, Bo Nix had his best game as a pro against a Buccaneers defense that attacked him with a 60 percent shooting percentage.

The rookie highlights his impressive speed, completing two of three passes downfield for 20 yards, but he’s also a quarterback who knows you won’t go for broke in the NFL and take a win. That’s a night and day difference from Caleb Williams, the Bears’ No. 1 overall pick, who had trouble keeping the ball for too long.

Nix faces a tough test this week against a secondary that ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage, but this isn’t the same pass rush we saw from the Jets last year.

Gang Green recorded seven sacks last week against the Patriots’ struggling offensive line, but they rank just 25th in pass rush win rate and need Haason Reddick on the field as soon as possible.

The Broncos have struggled to find sustained success on the ground, and that’s unlikely to change this week. According to FTN Fantasy, Denver’s offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards, and the Jets have the fourth-best run-stopping win rate in the league.

Expect a high passing rate from an offense that ranks ninth in passing percentage.

When the Jets have the ball

Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock last week and now ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per game on the season.

The intellectual aspects of the game will always be there for the future Hall of Famer, but it should be extremely encouraging for Jets fans to see him make throws on the run and show off his agility. I wouldn’t have expected that after his Achilles tendon injury so early in the season.

The Broncos will cover wide receiver Garrett Wilson with All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and force Rodgers to beat them with other weapons, such as Allen Lazard, his former teammate in Green Bay, who already has three touchdowns.

Breece Hall will be heavily involved in the running game, and one player to keep an eye on is running back Braelon Allen. The rookie rushed for 55 yards against the Patriots and could have another big game against the Broncos, who rank 19th in adjusted defensive line yards.

It will be fascinating to see how the Jets offensive line performs after the loss of right tackle Morgan Moses. First-round rookie Olu Fashanu will step in and make his first career start. The Broncos have an aggressive defense, lead the NFL with a 45.7% blitz rate and rank second in pass rush win rate.

Player Props: Broncos vs. Jets best bets

I don’t have a particular opinion about the spread or overall quantity in this game, but I love some of the player prop angles here.

Bo Nix has managed 18.5 pass completions in all three games so far, and while the Jets have an excellent secondary, they’re usually content to play Cover 4 and force opposing quarterbacks to dink and dunk their way to pave the way at the top of the field.

Of Nix’s 113 attempts this season, 48.7% have come within 10 yards of the offensive line, and he’s content to accept those short-yardage passes.

Betting on the NFL?

This duel should also benefit Braelon Allen, who had his best season with 14 chances. According to PFF, the rookie running back has an average YPC of 5.1 and ranks fourth with 4.11 yards after contact per attempt.

The script and encounter should allow Allen to continue his success locally.

Player props for betting:

• Bo Nix over 18.5 degrees (-115, bet365)
• Braelon Allen over 34.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.