Bryan Norcross analyzes the opportunities for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico

In an eerie repetition, computer forecast models agree that another tropical system will develop in the western Caribbean and move into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is no consensus on how strong it will become, where it will go and who might be affected. However, the likelihood of a storm hitting Texas is much lower than further east.

According to the very approximate current schedule, the system will form in the western Caribbean around midweek and could impact somewhere along the Gulf Coast around the weekend.

Many options are on the table. While the weather pattern is broadly similar to what Helene produced, some differences could result in a much weaker storm. However, there is no guarantee and it is not possible to know at this point.

A look at possible developments in the Gulf of Mexico.

(CIRA/FOX Weather)

An extensive low pressure area is developing over Central America, stretching from the western Caribbean across the southern Gulf to the Pacific. This is the so-called Central American Gyre (CAG), which we talked about so much in the lead-up to Helene’s development. This time, however, the developing vortex does not appear to be as strong.

A tropical disturbance is moving westward through the Caribbean Sea. In a few days it will reach the western Caribbean, where computer forecasts suggest it will work with the CAG to create an independent low pressure area. Rotation around the vortex will lift this new system north toward the Gulf. At least that is the general scenario that the computer forecasts portray.

The atmospheric pattern is forecast to be conducive to development, at least for a while. A relatively small dip in the jet stream is expected to move over the south late this week, which should move the system toward the northeast or east if it develops. Dry air and increasingly hostile high-altitude winds could impact the potential system later in the week, limiting the system’s ability to organize and strengthen.

Of course, the further into the future we project what will happen, the more we can only talk about possibilities. So don’t focus on a single forecast at this point.

We expect this general development mechanism to occur in late September and October, so it is not particularly unusual. However, with so many people trying to recover from Helene, it is daunting to imagine another storm of any kind in the Gulf.

Whatever happens to this system has nothing to do with Helene. We need to pay attention to developments this week regarding this potential storm, regardless of what we just went through.

At the moment we have no choice but to stay informed. Things are likely to become clearer on Tuesday as Caribbean unrest moves closer to the circulation of the Central American Gyre.

An overview of what Bryan Norcross is pursuing in the Atlantic Basin.

(FOX Weather)

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce are moving into the open sea and pose no threat to land. Both systems are forecast to weaken soon.

And there are two other faults in the Eastern Atlantic with development potential. The easternmost system is likely to develop into a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. The computer forecasts all show it moving north into the open Atlantic.

The system that has just left Africa currently has little chance of developing further. In any case, it should also turn north.

The next three names on the list are Kirk, Leslie and Milton. Milton replaced Michael, who retired after 2018. The lists are recycled every 6 years.