Analyzing the Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle Trade

The NBA world was in an uproar last night when it was announced that the Minnesota Timberwolves traded All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for fellow All-Star Julius Randle, guard Donte DiVincenzo and a speculative future prospect have. The Timberwolves were strong in the Western Conference last season and seemed to be getting back on track after years of struggles. The Knicks have been hot all summer, acquiring forward Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets and re-signing last year’s big signing, forward OG Anunoby. Both teams seemed well prepared to start the season. Then they took the biggest step of all.

A few Blazer’s Edge Mailbag readers are curious about this hot new offering, so let’s take a look.

Dave,

I know it’s not the Blazers’ fault, but can you tell me why trading Kat for Julius Randle made sense? I don’t know how either team does this better or why they did it. I like both players, but they seemed to fit where they were. How did that happen?

Jon

I don’t know what the impact of the trade will be, but as far as why, I think it’s as simple as possible with a few twists.

Karl-Anthony Towns is basically a center. When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert two seasons ago, Towns moved to power forward. He thrived there and earned All-Star honors, but he also had to give up some of his scoring opportunities and ball advantages to make it work. He limited himself to accommodating Gobert and his other teammates.

Look at Town’s shooting stats three seasons ago, before Gobert arrived. At the time, he attempted 59% of his shots within 10 feet. Give or take an exceptional season, either way, that was pretty typical of his career. In Gobert’s first season in 2022-23, Towns attempted 49% of his shots from that distance. Last year it recovered slightly to 54%. In both seasons, attempts from 3 to 10 feet carried the heavy cargo. After Gobert’s arrival, Towns’ appearances on the sidelines were by far her career low.

This is just an example. Towns’ total rebounds, offensive rebounds and blocked shots declined significantly during Minnesota’s “Twin Towers” era. It was a wedding cake with six layers as the centerpiece, but the “wolves” could only eat four of them, the ones on the side of the room.

The Knicks, on the other hand, just became Forwards-“Backwards R”-Us, with Bridges and Anunoby in the frontcourt alongside Randle, Josh Hart, Precious Achiuwa and even Marcus Morris. They are completely lacking in centers as they failed to re-sign Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason. Their most productive pivot before the trade averaged 5.6 points per game last year. Randle should move up to fifth in most projected lineups. However, the power forward is not a center, especially for defensive-minded coach Tom Thibodeau. He’s only 6 feet tall, his defensive stats are mediocre, and he hasn’t even averaged one blocked shot a season.

In New York, Towns will have the center position to himself. He’ll get just as many opportunities to score as Randle did when he played inside and used all six feet of his body. His three-point shooting will give the Knicks some versatility on offense, allowing their athletic, sleek forwards to push the tempo and penetrate while Towns occasionally hangs back or moves to the wing, just like he did in Minnesota has done. He will also give them more options when it comes to looking for his smaller teammates than Randle would have.

The “Wolves”, on the other hand, can take advantage of Randle’s scoring opportunities alongside Gobert and the defensively strong small forward Jaden McDaniels. They will need Randle to score as freely as he did in New York. They will make up for his lack of defense by having players put him in his place. It fits well.

Although Randle technically scores more points than Towns, the Knicks have the bigger, more versatile player. The biggest problem for the Wolves is that Randle doesn’t come close to the long-range shooter Towns. Minnesota needs to be careful about defenses pushing the lane against them and daring them to shoot.

This is offset (somewhat) by the last factor in the equation. Towns is scheduled to make $49 million this year, $57 million in 2026-27, with a player option for $61 million the following year. He’ll be 32 then, which is probably still worth it, but that’s a big change.

Randle is scheduled to make $29 million this year, an immediate savings of $20 million for the Timberwolves. They’re still above the second apron, but that $20 million could make a big difference, not only in the tax penalties saved today, but also in their ability to get back under the tax limit in the future. It won’t be easy; Randle has a $31 million player option next year that he will likely decline in favor of a new contract. But with him on board, the chances of financial sanity are greater than with Towns. Since this is more important for the Wolves than for the Knicks, the trade makes sense.

My best guess is that Minnesota is taking an all-or-nothing competition this year and trying to advance to the NBA Finals if possible, or at least see if that’s possible. They didn’t want to get stuck at second round/conference finals level, paying frontcourt-level penalties and losing assets for a team that had peaked with a superstar they weren’t getting the most out of. If Randle and his company show strength, they can invest again. If not, look for them to try to move assets to save more money. It’s not the best win-or-lose plan, but it’s probably the only smart financial option available to them.

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