5 Fantasy Football Stats You Should Know Before Setting Your Lineup (Week 4)

Week 4 is a crucial week within the NFL. This week we can use statistics from the first three weeks and incorporate a natural trend into the analysis instead of having to rely on statistics from 2023. These stats will help you further your research and determine the right starting/sitting decisions and what to expect from across the league, from superstars like Justin Jefferson to dart throwers like KJ Osborn.

Let’s break down these five statistics that will help you in your research today!

Fantasy football stats you should know before setting your lineup

Revenge season in Green Bay

Aaron Jones left his old home in Green Bay to join the purple and gold in Minnesota this past offseason. There have been several debates throughout the offseason as to whether this aging veteran can still bring his talent to the field or whether he is already past his prime. Jones has brought this story to a close by building on his strong 2023 postseason with an even more outstanding 2024.

Jones dominates in several categories. He ranks second in yards after contact per rush. Even when the line is doing well, Jones uses his playmaking ability to do more with every attempt. Jones ranks first in targets per route run for his Vikings running backs, recording 51.7% of routes per team dropback. This total shows us that he is not just a check-down option for Sam Darnold, but a projected option within the Vikings’ offense. Finally, he ranks fifth in yards per route run on these targets. We don’t see “PPR fraud” in his game, just a solid fantasy option every week.

The Packers have been a strong defense against running backs, but there is a way to attack them with the running backs. This year, the Packers’ defense has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the running back position. With Jordan Addison struggling with an injury, Jones is expected to feature more against his former team. The revenge narrative is alive and well in this matchup, where Vegas has the Vikings as three-point underdogs, leading to a Vikings passing game necessary for the upset.

Now you see me, now you don’t

Missed tackles forced per touch are an excellent metric for analyzing running backs. A running back shift can add more yards and home run potential to your lineup. Zach Charbonnet is one of the bigger surprises this year as he is the second-highest scoring running back in this category. His running mate, Kenneth Walker, was always described as a home run player, while Charbonnet was described as the all-around no-nonsense running back.

Charbonnet showed us that he has the talent to dominate with the best running backs in the NFL. As long as Walker is inactive, Charbonnet must be considered one of the top 12 running backs in this powerful Seahawks offense.

On the other side of the pendulum are the running backs, who can’t do anything on the ground this season. Did you know that Gus Edwards has 0% missed tackles per touch on the season? D’Andre Swift is also at the lower end of this scale with a total of 9%. Edwards can safely be left off your fantasy football roster. If this trend continues, Swift should be benched as the next decline in the coming weeks with the “Hot Seat” designation.

BROB SZN!

No, not Bijan Robinson, but Brian Robinson’s season is with us in week 4! Austin Ekeler is out this week due to injury. This injury means the backfield truly belongs to Brian Robinson in Week 4. Robinson has been impressive this season, leading the NFL in yards after contact per rush. His opponent this week, the Arizona Cardinals, have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards this season. They have also allowed the 11th-highest total receiving yards to running backs this season. If you’re close to starting Robinson, stop the crazy overthinking and start with this outstanding running back.

The tight end wasteland

Tight end was a difficult position in 2024. Last year we had so many incredible opportunities, but now we might as well join Deadpool and Wolverine in the Void as we look for a life in this position. This year we only have five tight ends ranked in the top 12 in route share, target share and first read share. Can you guess the players? Probably not considering, the list is:

With McBride and Kittle dealing with injuries, look for Ertz and Henry on your waiver wire. Ertz is only on the roster in 36% of sleeper leagues, while Henry is on the roster in 41% of sleeper leagues. Tight end is a dart throw again this season, but these two can give you a chance to make plays all game long.

Don’t look down

The Colts offense was a bit of a dumpster fire early in the season. It was tough for Anthony Richardson, who is learning the game on the fly. However, the Indianapolis Colts brought their second-year wide receiver Josh Downs back onto the field in Week 3. That return must have piqued Richardson’s interest, as Downs leads the team with a robust first read target rate (33%). Downs’ return means you can move on from Adonai Mitchell in the redraft, as Downs could be the comfort target for a quarterback who has trouble seeing the field.

With the Pittsburgh Steelers playing the Colts, we could see a shadow suspension from Michael Pittman as he draws Joey Porter Jr. in Week 4. This defense can fly around and make plays, which should make Downs Richardson’s comfort wide receiver. If you need help in your wide receiver room, don’t overlook Josh Downs on your Week 4 fantasy roster.

Remember to check out all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros as we are committed to helping you dominate your fantasy leagues. Don’t hesitate to contact X at @jpep20 if you need further help with your fantasy lineup. Good luck in week 4!