What we know before the Kentucky vs. Ole Miss game

Kentucky is going on the road for the first time this season. Waiting for the Wildcats is No. 6 Ole Miss on their homecoming in Oxford. A sellout crowd with Ole Miss fans “lighting up the stadium” should keep things going in Week 5. The challenge will be difficult for the away team.

After a week of previews of the big SEC matchup, now seems like the right time to take a step back and recap what we learned this week. What does Kentucky need to do to pull off an upset? Let’s dive in.

Stay in explosive game combat

South Carolina destroyed Kentucky in the explosive game battle. Georgia scored a touchdown on explosive plays. The splash plays often decide winners and losers. That makes the duel with Ole Miss difficult.

Lane Kiffin‘s offense leads college football in plays over 20 yards (37) and ranks second in plays over 30 yards (17) and over 40 yards (nine). The Rebels will run chunk plays against all players this season. Kentucky’s defense needs to limit these as much as possible and try to prevent explosive touchdowns in the game rather than making Ole Miss score their points in the red zone.

Even if Kentucky achieves this explosive play on defense, the Wildcats will need the offense to hold up their end of the bargain. Bush Hamdan’s offense enters the week ranked 103rd in the EPA/Play rankings. Despite an efficient rushing attack (No. 7 in success rate), Kentucky has difficulty finding explosives.

To pull off an upset, the road team will need to find some good plays to move the football and score points. Kentucky probably won’t beat Ole Miss when it comes to explosive play, but they need to make sure the battle comes close to a draw.

Setting the pace of the game will be crucial

Ole Miss runs a spread offense that wants to step on the gas and turn high-scoring, high-possession football games into basketball on grass. Kentucky runs a ball control offense that aims to shorten the game. The Wildcats need to get Ole Miss to play out of their comfort zone.

Whenever dealing with a spread team, the defense needs to take a few hits early and survive the early wave. That will be crucial for Kentucky heading into this game. The defense needs to find some stops early and not allow explosive game-play touchdowns. The offense must be successful and determine the conditions of the game.

That means staying ahead of the chains, converting on third down and keeping the Ole Miss offense off the field. Kentucky’s running game will be called upon to keep the offense in front of the chains. The Wildcats need to find explosives, but those will likely have to come from an offense that runs ahead of schedule and forces the Ole Miss defense to take some risks on early downs in order to win.

Kentucky needs to establish the run and find some complements to win the important tempo battle in a duel between two different football philosophies.

Win the turnover battle

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Kentucky’s 13-12 loss to Georgia was that the Wildcats were minus-one in the turnover column and were arguably outscoring UGA snap after snap. That seemed like an impossible task before the Week 3 match.

So what happens if Kentucky wins the turnover battle against a power conference opponent?

Kentucky has won the turnover battle just twice in its last nine games against power conference competition. That has to change. Kentucky’s offense should be able to shrink this game, and stealing a possession or two with a takeaway will limit the opportunities for Ole Miss’ high-stakes offense.

Winning the turnover battle could give Kentucky a big advantage and is likely needed now and in the future.