No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama final odds and predictions

Since taking over as head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs in 2016, Kirby Smart has only beaten Alabama once, in the 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship Game. However, Smart’s 1-5 record against the Crimson Tide comes entirely from Nick Saban, Smart’s former boss , when he was defensive coordinator in Tuscaloosa from 2008 to 2015.

The duo won four national championships together, and Smart stole one as his opponent, but now, in 2024, when No. 4 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia at Bryant Denny Stadium, Smart will look across Nick Saban Field and see another face. In his first season as Saban’s replacement, Kalen DeBoer is off to a 3-0 start, but his team is a home underdog for the first time since Saban’s first season in 2007.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this SEC showdown on Saturday night.

These odds are available on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

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When Saban decided to retire after the end of the 2023 season, there were changes to Alabama’s roster, but it was not gutted. DeBoer kept most of the key players in Tuscaloosa and even brought in center Parker Brailsford from Washington, who provided the offensive line for quarterback Jalen Milroe.

Last year in the SEC Championship, Milroe didn’t complete many passes, only completing 13 of his 23 attempts, but those 13 completions went for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps even more important than Milroe’s penchant for big plays, Alabama also won the battle in the trenches, holding Georgia to 78 rushing yards and gaining 114.

With 17-year-old freshman receiver Ryan Williams, Milroe still has a deep threat through the air, and given Georgia’s recent spate of injuries, the Bulldogs could be outgunned at the line of scrimmage. Georgia is without right guard Tate Ratledge, defensive linemen Mykel Williams and Jordan Hall are both questionable and Warren Brinson is listed as probable.

The lack of depth created by these injuries on the interior could make it difficult for quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia offense to keep up with Milroe, especially if offensive coordinator Mike Bobo doesn’t give him a chance to do so.

So far this season, Bobo has relied heavily on a difficult running game, ranking 92nd in success rate, especially on early downs. That means Beck still has a lot of hard work to do in the late stages. Georgia has an average third-down distance of 7.42 yards, which is in the 33rd percentile nationally, with a late-down success rate of 42.9% (41st percentile).

If Bobo Beck continues to hold on to third-and-long, Georgia could suffer its first loss of the season and first regular season loss since November 7, 2020. That and the injury concerns are a big concern, but I’ll predict a 21-20 win for Georgia.