3 reasons for optimism, 3 reasons for concern about “Noles.”

While Florida State’s big goals are still almost certain to be achieved, last week’s win over Cal was enough to keep the Seminoles feeling good. But how high can FSU fans hope after a 1-3 start?

Here are three reasons for optimism and three for concern ahead of Saturday’s game at SMU.

3 reasons for optimism

The defensive line has started to reach its potential.

FSU has 21 tackles for loss in the last two games. It is the Seminoles’ third-best two-game total against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents since the start of 2016.

It’s also a significant jump from the eight FSU recorded in the first two games. The Seminoles’ defensive front is among the most talented in the country, so their early mediocrity was surprising and concerning. Joshua Farmer’s breakout game against Cal (3½ tackles for a loss and a quarterback hurry) helped open up more opportunities for teammates like Patrick Payton (three sacks). Maybe this unit turned things around.

The run defense is better.

Tackles play a role in losses, but it’s more than that. Boston College and Georgia Tech averaged 5.1 yards per rush against FSU. In the last two games, the Seminoles have allowed less than half of that (2.5) despite facing one of the West Coast’s best players (Cal’s Jaydn Ott).

If this improvement is real and not artificially inflated by opponents, FSU can perform decently for the rest of the season.

Lawrance Toafili is more involved.

After totaling just 20 touches in the first three games, the Pinellas Park High running back had 19 against Cal. Health has played a role in his chances, and he will likely have to take on more responsibility with Jaylin Lucas out for the year and Roydell Williams sidelined for what Norvell described as an “extended period.”

“We needed him to be a workhorse (against Cal), and I thought he definitely answered the call,” Norvell told reporters after the game.

A better performance from FSU’s offensive line deserves some credit for his 80-yard night, but Toafili is an X-factor. He averages 4.9 yards per rush; The rest of the Noles average 2.6 yards per carry (excluding sacks). Toafili was the ACC Championship MVP and has a knack for making explosive plays that FSU’s offense lacked. His performance on Saturday was encouraging.

3 reasons to worry

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The passing game is tough.

Norvell said Monday that starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei’s position is not changing. But the results have to be there – from the entire passing attack. FSU ranks outside the top 100 nationally in passing efficiency (112.93) and graduation rate (56.7). Both numbers are the program’s worst since the 2020 COVID season.

The Seminoles only have three completions of more than 30 yards, meaning their passing offense is just as explosive as Iowa’s. This is not good company. Worse, it looks like a trend. FSU has gone nine straight games without passing for 300 yards. The Seminoles’ stats in the last seven contests: two touchdowns, five interceptions.

The rushing attack is not The much better.

Even Toafili’s spark couldn’t contribute much to the ground game; Against Cal, FSU averaged just 2.6 yards per rush. This is a seasonal problem. Under Norvell, the Seminoles have averaged less than 3.2 yards per attempt in 11 games. There were four this season.

When a team continues to show you who they are, at some point you have to believe them. How much evidence do we need after four games?

The schedule is difficult.

With the exception of Charleston Southern, FSU’s seven remaining opponents have a combined record of 21-6. Weak non-conference schedules can skew early results, but advanced metrics suggest this is no easy task. All seven remaining FBS opponents are in the top 40 in ESPN’s SP+ Advanced metrics. Miami, Clemson and Notre Dame are in the top 20. This contest could limit FSU’s potential.

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