Radical change in requirements expected at the end of September

Confirms a radical change in circulation for the last week of September. The northern European high pressure area, which has had a strong influence recently, will gradually be replaced by a low pressure area that will form between the North Sea and Scandinavia. A vortex associated with a cold trough fed by maritime Arctic currents moving southwestward, stimulating a subtropical anticyclonic rise at lower latitudes. This high pressure area will have few competitors in the southern regions, while in the center and especially in the north it will have to contend with the passage of intense disturbance fronts associated with the low point. So, immediately after Monday’s disturbed passage, we will most likely have a two-speed Italy, with a north more crossed by other disturbances and a center-south more protected by the anticyclone that will also lead to a rise in temperatures becomes summer values. It remains to be seen whether a disturbance can effectively penetrate the southern regions by the end of the week. Bad weather Monday Widespread bad weather in Italy with heavy showers and thunderstorms quickly moving from the western sectors to the eastern sectors by the evening. The phenomena could be particularly intense in the north and along the central Tyrrhenian coast up to Campania, where there is a risk of cloudbursts. In the evening the first clearings in the northwest and on Sardinia. Temperatures are falling, strong southerly winds. Very rough seas. The first clearings on Tuesday. Short intercyclonic break in Italy with changing weather and large clearings. Some showers will still affect the North East and at times the North West, particularly in the evening. In other places, clouds alternate with clearings, but without any notable phenomena. The temperatures are rising. Strong westerly or southwesterly winds. Rough seas. The new disturbance The progressive deepening of the cold valley over the North Sea is leading to a new, intense disturbance. The front will affect northern Italy more directly with rain and showers, especially in the northwest and more generally in the Alpine, pre-Alpine sectors and the plateaus. Stronger anticyclonic winds will affect the central southern regions, but there will still be some cloudiness and isolated light rain. Temperatures are rising, especially in the center and south. Strong southerly winds. Very rough seas. Divided Italy: Northern Italy is still affected by an Atlantic disturbance with rain and showers also heavy near the Alps, the foothills of the Alps and the plateaus. More protected by high pressure, the central southern regions with variability, rare or absent phenomena and further rising temperatures, reaching summer values. Strong southerly winds. Very rough seas. Towards the weekend, the disturbance front will slide eastwards and also affect the central southern regions with rain, thunderstorms and falling temperatures. The temperatures The return of the westerly currents is already favoring an initial rise in temperatures, which is also above average compared to the third decade of September. In the coming days, the expected poor weather conditions could favor a decline, but several regions, particularly in the Adriatic and the far south, will continue to remain above average, with possible maximum temperatures of up to 30°C on the large islands from Thursday.