Another hurricane in Florida? Meteorologists are tracking the Caribbean system

AccuWeather: “The entire Gulf Coast needs to pay attention”

Residents across the Southeast are still feeling the effects of now-Tropical Storm Helene, as Floridians begin the long task of recovering from the devastating effects of a Category 4 hurricane.

But the tropics are very active right now and a new threat is emerging for the Gulf Coast. Yes, again.

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A low pressure area could develop in the western Caribbean and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because the tropical disturbance is following a very similar path to Hurricane Helene.

Here’s what you should know:

Tropical disturbances in the Caribbean could be the next threat to Florida’s Gulf Coast

A low pressure area could form over the western Caribbean by the middle of next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

➤ Tropics Watch September 27: Here you can find out what’s happening in the tropics

Environmental conditions are expected to favor slow development as the system moves generally northwest, possibly entering the Gulf of Mexico by late next week.

Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Chance of occurrence over 7 days: low, 30 percent.

“Don’t let your guard down”: A new tropical disturbance could become a tropical storm or hurricane

“Don’t let your guard down,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

“Another serious tropical storm or hurricane threat could emerge from this area of concern. It is located in the same area of the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where Helene began.”

“Experts believe this is a medium risk area for tropical storm development. It could make landfall in the southern Gulf of Mexico later next week and then pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. If it moves towards Florida, that would be extra concern after the severe impact of Helene this week.

Could another hurricane or tropical storm really hit Florida on the Gulf Coast in early October?

A tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the western Caribbean between October 1 and October 4 and then move into the Gulf of Mexico.

“It’s too early for details, but everyone from the coast of Mexico to Florida will want to watch this closely in the coming days. Early indications suggest it could pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast sometime late next week” or October 5th. 6, Porter said.

Does this new system follow the same path that Helene took?

“It follows a similar path,” as Helene Porter said, “and it evolves very close to where Helene evolved. Its path is determined by steering “winds,” which may be different from the conditions that determined Helene’s path.

“The entire Gulf Coast needs to pay attention.”

Did Helene cool the Gulf waters enough to limit the development of new disturbances?

Helene may have brought some cooler water to the surface of the Gulf of Mexico along its narrow path, but water temperatures are expected to rise again to record highs as this new disturbance reaches the Gulf, Porter said.

“We were already worried about a storm like Helene in February, as water temperatures were 4 to 6 degrees above record levels,” Porter said. “This is rocket fuel” for a tropical system.

“The same threat will persist for future storms in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the season, with the greatest threat being rapid intensification.”

Rapid intensification is defined as a storm that intensifies with sustained winds of at least 35 miles per hour over a 24-hour period.

Helene far exceeded that figure, with sustained winds increasing from 85 mph at 9 p.m. Wednesday to 140 mph at 9 p.m. Thursday, a jump of 55 mph, Porter said.

Expect the 2024 hurricane season to be very active over the next few months

“We expect a very active second half of the season,” said Porter. “There is a lot of activity on board and we cannot rule out a named storm after the end of the season.”

La Niña is increasing. It will be very active in the next few months.

Another hurricane in Florida? Meteorologists are tracking the Caribbean system

ByJasper

AccuWeather: “The entire Gulf Coast needs to pay attention”

Tropical disturbances in the Caribbean could be the next threat to Florida’s Gulf Coast

“Don’t let your guard down”: A new tropical disturbance could become a tropical storm or hurricane

Could another hurricane or tropical storm really hit Florida on the Gulf Coast in early October?

Does this new system follow the same path that Helene took?

Did Helene cool the Gulf waters enough to limit the development of new disturbances?

Expect the 2024 hurricane season to be very active over the next few months

By Jasper

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