Fantasy Football: Week 4 sleeper led by the ever-underrated Geno Smith

Week 3 was the best sleeper side of the fantasy football season, with Jauan Jennings winning and Chuba Hubbard moving up to RB6. Some of the other picks were minor hits; Andrei Iosivas was the WR22 and Zach Ertz had the makings of acceptable tight end play in 2024.

Unfortunately, you are only as good as your last envelope. Let’s move on to the week four sleepers.

QB Geno Smith at the Lions (43% on roster)

The Seahawks know their way around the 313; They visited Detroit last September and came away with an entertaining 37-31 overtime win. This year’s Lions may not be as pinball-friendly, however; Detroit’s defense has improved a bit (Aidan Hutchinson’s pass-rushing chops are making the secondary look better) and Jared Goff wasn’t great to start the year. Vegas demanded 52.5 points between the Lions and Cardinals last week and the game never came close to that number; The market corrected in week 4, with a total reading of 46.5 for Monday evening.

Still, Smith plays at a high level. His low touchdown rate is likely a fluke, and he is above league average in YPA and completion percentage (a hot clip of 74.8%). Maybe this pick is more about the bottom than the top, but Seattle’s fun receiver room also adds something to the case.

QB Andy Dalton vs. Bengals (12% on roster)

All we wanted from Dalton last week was competent play. Instead, he was a star — the No. 6 quarterback of the week according to PFF metrics. Even if you just care about the basic stats, Dalton threw up a ton — 319 passing yards, three touchdowns. And the next assignment is a graduation in Cincinnati, which Washington toasted for three hours. Count me in.

Subscribe Yahoo Fantasy Prediction To Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

RB Rico Dowdle at Giants (47% in squad)

If you’re a Dallas fan, you’ll want to burn the tape from the last two weeks. Little went right. But we must note how Dowdle appears to be whizzing past Ezekiel Elliott in the pecking order. Last week, Dowdle logged 37 snaps to Zeke’s 15, and he had 13 opportunities (rushes and targets) to Elliott’s five.

Obviously, Dallas was three hours behind against Baltimore, and such a game script will generally favor Dowdle. But all the efficiency stats point to the younger Dowdle – he beats Elliott in yards per carry, yards per catch and (logically) yards per touch. With the Cowboys desperately sitting at 1-2, they will have to rely on their best players.

RB Roschon Johnson vs. Rams (15% in squad)

There may not be a right answer in Chicago’s backfield, but D’Andre Swift certainly seems like a wrong answer. He averages 1.8 yards per run and ranks 50th in success rate among 51 qualified runners. Even a juicy Colts matchup in Week 3 didn’t get Swift going.

Chicago’s offensive line hasn’t played well, so our expectations have to be modest. But while Swift did nothing on his 13 carries (20 yards) last week, Johnson managed 30 yards on his eight attempts. A YPC of 3.8 is certainly not worthy, but it likely leads Johnson to an expanded role in Week 4. The Rams rushing defense was indeed strong, but much of the running back conundrum in fantasy football remains in solving the opportunity.

RB Tyler Badie at the Jets (2% in the squad)

This is more of a deep league treasure than someone to play this week unless you’re in a big league and get backed into a corner. Badie’s quasi-breakout game came in 13 snaps in Tampa Bay, mostly a miss. But at least he broke off a few successful runs; Meanwhile, Javonte Williams (2.2 YPC) and Jaleel McLaughin (2.2) did not produce.

Head coaches know September is about evaluating players and that leads to better decisions later. Consider the rhythm of last year’s season in Denver. There was an embarrassing 70-20 loss at Miami in Week 3, leaving them 1-5 for six weeks. The Broncos finished the year on a 7-4 run as Sean Payton began to realize who his best players were. Maybe this season will be similar. I’ve added some speculation that Badie shares in my deepest leagues this week; It’s still in the longshot file, but you can squint and see plausible benefits.

WR Xavier Legette vs. Bengals (12% on roster)

Obviously, Diontae Johnson is the alpha target for Carolina, but there is still room for at least one more useful pass-catcher. Adam Thielen was on track last week (3-40-1) but injured his hamstring on a nice touchdown catch; He missed several games. This leads to a collection of plausible sleepers. Legette is the first name I’ll look at, but the group could also include Jonathan Mingo and tight end Tommy Tremble.

Mingo ran more routes than Legette last week, 28 to 20 (after 39 dropbacks from Andy Dalton). But how a team deals with an in-game injury is often different than what they do with a week of preparation. Legette’s efficiency was better than Mingo’s in their respective limited editions, so he is my first read at this point.

TE Tyler Conklin vs. Broncos (27% on roster)

I’m torn about Conklin’s breakout in Week 3. A 5-93-0 line from a tight end in 2024 makes you hug strangers; it resulted in a TE5 finish. Conklin also rarely comes off the field for New York, recording a snap percentage of 90% or better through three weeks. However, most of Conklin’s work against New England emerged from secondary reading; It’s nice that Aaron Rodgers is competent enough to find these opportunities, but we need more first-read targets before Conklin gets Circle of Trust privileges.

The shape of the Denver defense will decide the tie. The Broncos are the second stingiest defense when it comes to allowing WR fantasy points this year (Patrick Surtain II – the main reason, but far from the only one), but the interior defense is less strong and tight ends have over the years league average points scored against this unit. Conklin’s profile has pros and cons, but this seems like a good Week 4 spot for him.

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. Browns (26% on roster)

Cleveland should probably bench Deshaun Watson, but the Browns have so much invested in their franchise quarterback that they are hesitant to make a move. Watson’s play has been terrible by every measure – he ranks 27th in scoring, 28th in play completion, 25th in touchdown rate, and 26th in passing yards (despite… third most attempts). He also recorded a league-worst 16 sacks.

Las Vegas was terrible in the comeback loss to Andy Dalton and Carolina in Week 3, and that might actually encourage the pick here. Antonio Pierce has put his squad on alert, and I suspect that will lead to a more committed performance. So often it’s a zig-zag league.