Brandon Aubrey’s kicking streak rivals the NFL’s greatest – even Justin Tucker

• An unprecedented start: Aubrey made 16 of 16 field goals from beyond 50 yards. If we compare this to Tucker’s best routes, Tucker made 12 and 11 shots from over 50 yards, respectively. And since 2013, no kicker has made 16 straight field goals from more than 50 yards, let alone seven from 55 or more yards.

• A deep dive into the data: Based on the expected outcome of his 50 field goal attempts, Aubrey could have scored 40.75 points if he had performed like an average NFL kicker. With 48 hits, he exceeded expectations by 7.25 field goals.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

It was January 16, 2023 when the Dallas Cowboys played against them Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild card round of the 2022 NFL playoffs. Everyone watching knew it could be the last NFL game Tom Bradywidely regarded as the greatest quarterback of all time. WWe had not I knew that this game would also boost the career of another player who is now well on his way to becoming one of the best players of all time at his position.

Many may remember that the Cowboys’ victory was overshadowed by Kicker Brett Maher — who made more than 90% of his field goals and 94% of his extra points during the 2022 regular season — missed his first four extra points.

After the Cowboys’ fifth and final touchdown, Maher finally hit a successful extra point and also scored both field goals in the following divisional round game against the Cowboys San Francisco 49ers (although he missed another extra point). But at The At that point, it was clear that the Cowboys would be looking for another kicker for the 2023 season.

The Cowboys decided to come out of the box, having neither drafted their new kicker nor settled for a veteran from another team. Instead, they signed former football player Brandon Aubrey, who only spent a short time as an American football placekicker in the USFL.

More than a year later, the Cowboys certainly don’t regret their decision.

The numbers speak for themselves: Aubrey made 48 of his 50 field goal attempts, including a perfect 16 of 16 from beyond 50 yards. His official box score lists 49 attempts, but for this article we’ll count his 66-yarder against him Cleveland Browns in week 1, which was unfortunately ruined due to a false start. The kick had a lot of distance and would have equalized Justin Tuckeris the NFL record for longest successful field goal.

In this article, we’ll take a closer look at Aubrey’s career so far and see how he compares to some of the great kickers of recent years.

The chart below shows the field goal performance of all kickers since 2023 and compares their success rates to expected results based on the shot distance and weather conditions at the time of each attempt.

Despite playing half of his games in a dome, Aubrey was still often asked to throw fairly hard kicks due to the high number of distance attempts. Most importantly, the data shows that no other kicker was more successful compared to expectations based on the conditions and distances of their kicks.

To anyone who has watched Aubrey over the past 12 months, it’s no surprise that he’s been exceptional, but let’s take this analysis a step further. Instead of just comparing him to other kickers since 2023, let’s measure Aubrey’s 50 career field goal attempts against stiffer competition: the best 50 kick distances of any NFL kicker since 2013.

In other words, we’re pitting Aubrey against the absolute pinnacles of every kicker of the last decade. While Aubrey only has 50 attempts in his career, we’ll focus on other kickers’ best 50 attempts, often made between misses. So how does Aubrey compare to the league’s carefully selected elite teams of best kickers?

Based on the expected outcome of his 50 field goal attempts, Aubrey could have scored 40.75 points if he had performed like an average NFL kicker. With 48 hits, he exceeded expectations by 7.25 field goals.

To put that in perspective, I dug through the data to find other kickers with similar performance, where they made seven or more field goals above expectations in 50 consecutive attempts. Unsurprisingly, there are only two such sections, both owned by Justin Tucker.

Tucker had an even more notable run starting in 2015 and continuing into the 2016 season, when he made 48 of 50 shots on slightly harder attempts, largely due to the fact that many of his shots were made in difficult weather conditions.

The next best section of all unnamed kickers Justin Tucker came here Graham Gano, who has made 6.51 more field goals than expected over a stretch of 50 attempts since 2020.

That means that while Aubrey’s performance isn’t entirely unprecedented, it’s telling that only Justin Tucker — the league’s best kicker in an entire decade — had a better performance, and even then only once in his long career. No other kicker came close.

Aubrey’s performance is even more impressive when you consider that he remains perfect from over 50 and over 40 meters. Ironically, his only two misses came on short kicks against the Washington commanders in Week 18 of last season.

So far, Aubrey has made 16 of 16 field goals from over 50 yards. If we compare this to Tucker’s best routes, Tucker made 12 and 11 shots from over 50 yards, respectively. And since 2013, no kicker has made 16 straight field goals from over 50 yards, let alone seven from 55 or more yards.

Aubrey also made 24 of 24 field goals from beyond 40 yards. The only other kicker to do this was Justin Tucker during his peak, which began in 2015. Aubrey also stands out here, as Tucker only had to make 12 field goals from more than 50 yards in this stretch, while Aubrey already made 16 from that distance.

In summary, while Brandon Aubrey still has a long way to go to achieve the long-term consistency of the NFL’s best kickers, we can safely say that the beginning of his career is the absolute peak of any other kicker in the last decade surpasses – except for arguably the greatest kicker of all time, Justin Tucker.

Considering both his consistency and his ability to make the longest field goals in NFL history, Aubrey’s performance to date could be completely unprecedented.

That makes him a great asset to them Dallas Cowboysand without even thinking about what He can do it on kickoffs.