LDP election: Japan’s next prime minister could be the first woman to lead

CNN
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Japan’s ruling party will elect its new leader on Friday and the winner will become the country’s next prime minister.

Of the record nine candidates, three front-runners are engaged in a very close race that will likely end in a runoff.

The winner will take the helm of the world’s fourth-largest economy at a time of rising living costs, exacerbated by the weak yen and high inflation, as Japan faces growing security challenges in the region and tensions with neighbors such as China.

Among the favorites vying to lead the long-ruling, scandal-plagued Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are Sanae Takaichi, the conservative economic security minister who could become the country’s first female prime minister; Shinjiro Koizumi, a charismatic young surfer who comes from a popular political dynasty; and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is running for the top job for the fifth and final time.

The conservative LDP has ruled Japan almost continuously since the party’s founding in 1955. Because of their majority in the lower house, the LDP’s chosen candidate will be approved by Japan’s parliament, the Diet, when it meets in October.

General elections are scheduled for next year, but the winning candidate could decide to call an early election before then. Some reports suggest this could happen as early as the US presidential election in November.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not in the running after unexpectedly announcing his resignation last month after a series of political scandals led to calls for his resignation.

The winner will be tasked with improving the LDP’s image ahead of the general election.

The ruling party has been embroiled in one of Japan’s biggest political scandals in decades in recent months.

Two of the LDP’s most influential factions have been accused of under-reporting their income and expenses and, in some cases, allegedly diverting political funds to lawmakers as bribes.

Scandals involving several high-ranking officials have not helped. Some are accused of being involved in violations of electoral law or of having made offensive statements against minorities in the past.

Kishida had tried to contain the damage by replacing several cabinet ministers and dissolving his own party faction last year.

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, the new prime minister will steer Japan’s relations with a new American leader at a time of growing security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly assertive China and a belligerent North Korea.

The partnership with Japan has long been central to U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific, and Kishida this year expanded Tokyo’s defense cooperation with its key ally.

“You can assume that Ishiba, Takaichi and Koizumi will do pretty well, but I really can’t say which of these three will win the race,” Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at the University of Tokyo, told Reuters. “I don’t think we’ll find out until the very last moment.”

The candidates

If the 63-year-old Takaichi wins, it would be a significant moment for Japan, where men continue to dominate politics and the boardrooms.

However, such a victory would not necessarily usher in a new progressive era. The political veteran is a staunch conservative from the party’s right wing and has promised to prioritize economic growth. She has also spoken out against laws that could allow married women to keep their maiden names and has cited Margaret Thatcher, the conservative former British leader, as a role model.

She is a protégé of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a supporter of his eponymous economic policies. She is similarly combative on security issues and supports a revision of the country’s pacifist constitution.

Takaichi’s visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine – which honors Japan’s 2.4 million war dead, including convicted war criminals – have sparked protests in South Korea and China, victims of the country’s expansive aggression in the first half of the 20th century.

Her plans to boost Japan’s economy include cutting interest rates after the Bank of Japan raised rates this year, and she has called for “strategic” fiscal spending to boost jobs and household incomes, according to Reuters.

Koizumi, 43, is the US-educated, charismatic son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and would be Japan’s youngest leader if elected.

Koizumi, like his father, has presented himself as a reformer and promised to call early parliamentary elections. He said he would continue outgoing leader Kishida’s economic policies.

Critics pointed to his lack of experience in domestic politics and international relations, as well as an economic plan viewed as poor in detail.

But Koizumi’s star power has endeared him to the public, particularly among young voters and women.

He has supported legislation that could allow married women to keep their maiden names and advocates allowing women to ascend to the imperial throne, which is currently not allowed in Japan. Koizumi made headlines when he became the country’s first cabinet member to take paternity leave – just two weeks, but a significant step since many new fathers don’t take it due to Japan’s work culture.

Ishiba, 67, is an experienced politician and takes security issues seriously. He said Japan should reduce its reliance on nuclear energy in favor of renewable energy and called for an Asian version of the NATO security bloc to counter threats from China and North Korea.

In a political culture that values ​​conformity, Ishiba has long been something of an outsider, willing to criticize and act against his own party. This willingness to speak out made him powerful enemies within the LDP, but also endeared him to more rank-and-file members and the public.

He belongs to the more progressive wing of the Conservative party.