Cowboys vs. Giants: The best bets for Thursday night football players

I’m 13-5 in MNF and 67% in TNF games so far, so let’s stay healthy heading into Week 4. 2024 TNF Prop Record: 8-4 (67%) Thursday Night Football Note: All props are always listed in the correct order or priority and calling. It’s a good matchup for all Cowboys receivers.

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Ezekiel Elliott Over 26.5 rushing yards

• Cowboys are 5.5-point road favorites,
• They need to show some toughness in the trenches and with their running game considering they have trouble stopping the run themselves and Jerry Jones passed on Derrick Henry who is getting ripped so I can see them taking one to Zeke give real chance.
• Zeke is something of a Giants killer in his career with 11 touchdowns in 13 games
• Ran 9/46 – 5.1 YPC against them last year as a Patriot
• The Giants allow a generous 5.4 YPC to the RBs.

Wandale Robinson Over 4.5 receptions.

• The Cowboys play in the zone at the third-highest rate (82%), and Robinson is averaging a solid 1.73 YPRR with a promising 19.1% target percentage against the zone.
• In the meantime, Malik Nabers averages -71.9% less FP/RR against zone (0.34) than Mann, so this isn’t an ideal schematic matchup for the rookie.
• The Cowboys can also put pressure on the QB and are 11th in pressure rate (38.2%) Daniel Jones Averaged 4.2 YPA with a 47.6% completion rate against pressure over three weeks.
• I think that means he’s looking for his safety valve, Robinson, who has already logged two games with 6+ catches and 8+ targets, including 7/61 receptions on 8 targets (22.9%) last week.
• I thought he would be a bigger factor against the Browns, and he was, and I feel the same way here.

Jalen Tolbert Over 28.5 yards

• Tolbert ran the same 82% of routes as Brandin Cooks last week
• He was just behind the veteran in air yard percentage (22.3% > 23.8).
• The Giants have ranked seventh in single-high coverage this year (60.4%), and since 2022, Tolbert has +65.7% more targets per route run against single-high compared to two-high , and he sees +82.6% boost to his YPRR.
• The Giants have allowed an NFL-high 31 receptions to wide receivers.
• Deonte Banks
• Jalen Tolbert – Cordale Flott or Nick McCloud, a UDFA-type journeyman

Devin Singletary Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

• Singletary’s FP increased in three straight games (19.8 > 15.5 > 9.2).
• Season highs in touches (20) and scrimmage yards (108) in a win over the Browns. He recorded a snap share of 70%, a carry share of 50% and a route share of 44%.
• Singletary was good for 14+ touches in each game, including 4 catches in 2-of-3 contests.
• The Cowboys have an adjusted YBC/ATT of 3.08 and a YPC of 5.4 at the NFL level and have allowed by far the most FPG (36.5) to RBs.

Rico Dowdle Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

• Last week he beat Zeke in carries (8>3), receptions (3>1), scrimmage yards (56>12) and FPG (8.6>2.2).
• Giants give RBs a generous 5.4 YPC.
• Cowboys are 5.5-point road favorites,

Brandin Cooks over 36.5 yards (-110)

• The Giants ranked seventh in single-high coverage this year (60.4%).
• Since joining the Cowboys in 2022, Cooks has seen his TPRR increase by +57.5% (19.4%, he has an average TPRR of just 12.3% vs. Two-High over that period), an increase in the YPRR by +127% and an increase of +70%. Increase to FP/RR.

• Cooks has only reached 50+ three times in 20 games with the Cowboys, but he had his best in this game last year when he posted 9/173/1 receiving in mid-November.
• The Giants have allowed an NFL-high 31 receptions to wide receivers.

Malik Nabers under 70.5 yards (-110)

• Through three weeks, Malik Nabers is averaging -71.9% less FP/RR against zone (0.34) than against man coverage (1.22, the best of any qualifying WR).
• He still has a pretty good TPRR of 28.6% vs. the zone (so the volume should be there), but this isn’t an ideal schematic combination.
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