National League Wildcard: Analysis of the possibilities for the MLB playoffs

An already competitive race for the National League wild-card spot got even crazier this week with the postponement of two games between the Mets and Braves in Atlanta, forcing the teams to schedule a doubleheader for Monday, one day after the regular season ended for everyone else.

The last time a regular-season game postponed after the season had postseason implications was 1981, when Kansas City defeated Cleveland to clinch home-field advantage in the American League playoffs. The last time a regular-season game postponed after the season had playoff berths was 1973, when the Mets won the first game of a doubleheader with the Cubs to clinch the NL East. (The second game was not played.)

There are more than a thousand ways things could play out over the next few days for the Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets and Braves. Let’s break down what we know about this weekend’s stakes.

What is the current status?

If the season ended today, the Brewers would host the Diamondbacks and the Padres would host the Mets. The Braves would be eliminated.

The season doesn’t end today, and there are 1,536 different ways things could play out for the five teams mentioned above between now and Monday night. That’s too many to break down right now.

So we’ll focus on the 64 different scenarios that can play out in this weekend’s three most important series: the Brewers host the Mets, the Braves host the Royals, and the Diamondbacks host the Padres.

Who has the tiebreakers?

The Padres have the tiebreaker against the Braves.

Both the Mets and the Braves have a lead over the Diamondbacks in the tiebreaker.

The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Padres.

The Braves currently have the tiebreaker over the Mets, but that would change if New York emerges victorious in Monday’s doubleheader.

In any scenario where the Diamondbacks and Padres end up in a tie, Arizona would have the tiebreaker.

What are the magic numbers for victory?

Fathers

• Have secured a place in the postseason

• I secured a place before Atlanta

• Gain a lead over Arizona with another Arizona win or loss

• Secure a spot ahead of New York with a combination of two wins from San Diego or two losses from New York.

• Secure the NL West title over Los Angeles with a combination of seven more San Diego wins or Los Angeles losses

Diamondbacks

• Get a lead over Atlanta with a combination of four Arizona wins or four Atlanta losses.

• Secure a spot ahead of New York with a combination of five Arizona wins or New York losses

• Get a lead over San Diego with a combination of seven Arizona wins or seven San Diego losses.

Mets

• Secure a spot ahead of Arizona with a combination of four New York wins or Arizona losses

• Secure a spot ahead of Atlanta with a combination of five New York wins or five Atlanta losses

• Secure a spot ahead of San Diego with a combination of eight New York wins or San Diego losses (that can’t happen before Monday)

Brave

• Get a lead over Arizona with a combination of five Atlanta wins or five Arizona losses

• Secure a spot ahead of New York with a combination of seven Atlanta wins or New York losses (that can’t happen before Monday)

A conclusion

• The Mets cannot be eliminated before Monday’s doubleheader

What would make Monday’s doubleheader game completely unnecessary?

There are a few scenarios where the National League playoff field is set and seeded by Sunday night. This would require:

• A Royals win over the Braves

• The Padres win two of three games against the Diamondbacks

• The Mets win the series against the Brewers

In those cases, the Padres would host the Mets and the Brewers would host the Diamondbacks. The Braves would be eliminated.

Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks have their hands full this weekend. (Matt Kartozian / USA Today Network / Imagn Images)

What would likely make Monday’s doubleheader game unnecessary?

Of course, the doubleheader would have to be played if playoff qualification was at stake. For the National League playoff field to be set on Sunday night, either Atlanta or Arizona would have to be eliminated.

Atlanta would be eliminated if the Diamondbacks win four times and the Braves lose PLUS if the Mets win five times and the Braves lose. For example, if Atlanta is defeated by the Royals, the Mets win the series in Milwaukee, and the Diamondbacks get a win over the Padres.

Arizona would be eliminated with a combination of four Mets wins and Diamondbacks losses PLUS a combination of five Braves wins and Diamondbacks losses. For example, if Arizona is defeated by the Padres, the Braves win the series against Kansas City and the Mets win once in Milwaukee.

If Atlanta or Arizona are eliminated, it is up to the commissioner’s discretion whether the doubleheader game to determine seeding is played. It’s probably safe to assume that the doubleheader game would be canceled if it only determined the fifth and sixth seedings in the National League. (If you give one of these teams truth serum, they’ll probably tell you they’d rather have the sixth seed and travel to Milwaukee than a likely game against San Diego.)

However, there are also scenarios where the playoff field is set, but fourth place — and a Wild Card Series with home-game revenue — is in play. That would require Atlanta to be eliminated and a combination of at least six Mets wins and Padres losses through Sunday.

What would make Monday’s doubleheader game partially unnecessary?

There are several scenarios in which the second game of the doubleheader does not need to be played, as was the case with the Mets in 1973. For example, if the Mets enter the day with one win and the Braves two and New York wins the opening game, the second game would not be necessary. (Major League Baseball has not officially stated that the second game would not be played in such a scenario, but it seems to be another safe assumption.)

Is there a chance of a separation that is beneficial for both sides?

Few sporting events in recent memory have been as perversely exciting as the final game of the 2021 NFL season. The Chargers and Raiders were playing each other, and a playoff spot was on the line: The winner would get in, the loser would get out. Or, if the two teams tied, both would get in, at the Steelers’ expense. And then the game went deep into overtime, making a tie entirely possible until Las Vegas kicked a field goal in the final seconds to knock the Chargers out.

Few historic sporting events were as perversely boring as West Germany’s 1-0 victory over Austria at the 1982 World Cup, when both teams knew that such a result would allow them both to advance to the knockout rounds at Algeria’s expense. The shame of Gijón changed the World Cup rules and has its own Wikipedia page.

So is there any chance the Mets and Braves could work something out to ensure both teams advance? There are scenarios where that would be the case, with both teams entering Monday’s game one win less than Arizona. But given the decades-long rivalry between the two franchises, as evidenced by their inability to work out a better contingency plan for these final two games, it’s hard to imagine either side considering such an arrangement. each other advantageous.

What would make Monday’s doubleheader game particularly significant?

If the Padres and Diamondbacks both win by Sunday night without Atlanta being eliminated, the doubleheader will decide the final spot in the NL postseason.

There are also scenarios where the Mets could arrive in Atlanta on Monday and head home on Tuesday – for Game 1 of a Wild Card Series or the offseason. That would require:

• The Padres lose, giving them a chance to finish fourth

• The Mets win the series in Milwaukee

• The Braves remain two games behind the Mets

The Mets in particular have often come within a single game of qualifying for the postseason or missing it. This outcome could be the wildest of all.

(Top photo of Orlando Arcia and Jose Iglesias: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)